Walid Jumblatt, Survivor

Here is an interesting quote by Walid Jumblatt, Lebanese Druze chieftain. I'll provide the link to Obsidian Wings, rather than the original source at the (registration-only) Financial Times.

Jumblatt is, of course, the ultimate survivor of Lebanese politics. Of all the major participants, he's just about the only one who survived the decade-long Civil War. He started militias when they were needed, and got out of the business when they weren't (and would start them again if he has to). He was, and is, deeply involved with the Syrians, the Americans, the Israelis, Hezbollah, and anyone else with any influence in the area. How anyone can be a major participant in the viper's nest of Middle East politics, and avoid the car bombs and the sniper shots and the army coups and the foreign invasions and the terror plots, not just for a few years, but for decades, is beyond me. Jumblatt has gotta be the smartest guy in the universe....

What does Walid Jumblatt think about the latest war?:

"Walid Jumblatt, leader of the most powerful clan in Lebanon’s Druze community, said on Tuesday the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas had dealt a fatal blow to Lebanese hopes of a strong independent state, free of Iranian and Syrian influence. (...)

“After the 12 July, Lebanon is now unfortunately being entrenched solidly into the Syrian-Iranian axis,” he said. “The hopes of a stable, prosperous Lebanon where we could attract investments is over for now. It is a fatal blow for confidence.”

Mr Jumblatt has shrewdly navigated the ups and downs of Lebanon’s treacherous politics, gaining influence beyond the weight of his Druze community, a breakaway sect from Shia Islam that makes up around 10 per cent of the population.

As a militia leader during Lebanon’s civil war he accommodated Syria’s expansionary aims. But last year he emerged as one of the Syrian regime’s fiercest opponents in an alliance of groups that came together following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and led a coalition government following elections.

At that time, Mr Jumblatt held out hope that a new wave of democratic activism was sweeping the Arab world.

But on Tuesday he offered a bleak and outspoken assessment of the prospects for Lebanon.

He said among Syrian-backed politicians there was already talk of forming an emergency government to replace Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s coalition. He said he feared that an “organised mob” might be used to force the government’s resignation. (...)

There was also little prospect that Hizbollah, having emerged as a champion in the Arab and Muslim world, would be willing now to incorporate its armed wing under the Lebanese state apparatus – the issue at the centre of international diplomatic efforts to end the conflict with Israel.

“We will be just a weak state next to a very strong militia. Our government will be like the government of Abu Mazen (Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas) next to Hamas or maybe worse like the government of [Nouri al] Maliki in Iraq.”

“All American policy in the Middle East is at stake,” he continued, “because their failure in Palestine, their failure in Iraq and now this failure in Lebanon will lead to a new Arab world where the so called radical Arabs will profit.

“This is the new Middle East. Not the new Middle East of Ms [US secretary of state Condoleezza] Rice. Darkness everywhere.”