Chris Update

Today, Chris weakened dramatically, but it is likely to strengthen again as it approaches Cuba. It should be passing Havana Sunday evening, and moving through the Keys Monday morning.

Chris is a pretty compact storm, so far. If it reaches hurricane status, it's likely to be a small hurricane. There won't be much direct impact on Tampa, apart from some cloudiness, but there might be some disruption of air traffic in southern Florida that might affect on-time airline performance in Tampa and beyond. So, be prepared for long lines, delayed flights, and the other joys of modern airline travel.

Today's forecast sends Chris well south of the Rio Grande River, into the Mexican Gulf coast, Wednesday evening. I'm puzzled why so far south - to me, there wouldn't be much to stop it from going to Texas instead - but according to the NOGAPS model, a powerful high will dominate the central U.S. next week (no doubt accompanied by a blistering heat wave in the Midwest and East Coast states) and THAT will keep Chris far to the south. I'm skeptical, though. We'll have to see about this heat wave.

On other fronts, the rest of the Atlantic looks pretty quiet at the moment.