No Alberto II

Fickle Mother Nature changed her mind. No storm! Apologies for the false alarm.

Several factors led me to call a false alarm. First, the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are much more active than they were just two weeks ago. It seemed likely that a storm would start sometime soon. Second, both the GFS and NGP numerical models gave very strong signals that a storm was imminent. That kind of strong signal is usually valid. Third, the storm that was indicated was like Alberto, a storm that caught me and others by surprise in early June as it quickly blew up out of the Caribbean. Going into a weekend, it would be remiss not to at least raise a warning flag about a fast-developing storm.

The NGP model still indicates a storm, but very much weaker; a line of thunderstorms moving across the Yucatan, and eventually ending up in Texas.

Well, live and learn! The eerie silence of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season continues!