Ernesto Edges East

The newer forecasts suggest Ernesto will rake central Florida from south-to-north, or eastern Florida, and not bother western Florida so much, which is good for Tampa. Northerly winds will tend to pull drier air from the north past Tampa, hopefully minimizing the rains that can do so much damage.

Nevertheless, there is disagreement regarding how far west the storm will go. Some forecasts suggest Ernesto will barely clip eastern Florida, making landfall in the Ft. Lauderdale area. I tend to discount these forecasts, however. There is a trough in the upper Mississippi Valley that isn't moving rapidly eastwards, and that trough will tend to pull the storm westwards, onto the Florida peninsula itself.

Both the NOGAPS and GFS models are in agreement, oddly enough, and suggest that Ernesto will make its closest approach to Tampa about 9 a.m. Wednesday morning, with the center of the storm passing east of Tampa, squarely halfway between the east and west coasts.

The strength of the storm looks fairly minimal for western Florida - maybe 30 mph winds at most at closest approach to Tampa, making for an experience not much different than Wilma was last year, for Tampa.

There are signs that the Carolinas, particularly North Carolina, will see a major rain event from Ernesto.