Tropical Depression Number One, aka Alberto

Dwight and Linda write:

Hi Marc. Heard the weather in Sacramento was perfect. Until early this evening, it's been just fabulous here. Even the humidity is staying lower that normal. But now it is cloudy and looking like rain. The local weather prophets are saying that this "Tropical Depression One" is supposed to have some impact on Tampa's weather.

Got any thoughts on it?

Holy freakin' mackerel, where did that come from? Yeah, it looks like Tampa and area will get A LOT of rain Sunday night and Monday morning from this system (4 inches plus)! It's poorly-organized, with the center of circulation well to the west of the rain, meaning it's not entirely tropical in nature, but rather some kind of mid-latitude/tropical hybrid. So, maybe not that much wind, but rain, rain, rain! Keep your eyes peeled!

Central Florida Hurricane Blog says:

Tropical Depression One has formed. Advisories have been issued.

This system is still not poised to strengthen too much quickly, at least now. Most of the convection is on the eastern side of the storm, which means Florida will likely see more rain from it. Models are still not all that reliable as to future location, but Cuba and the Southeaster Gulf will want to watch it.

The current official forecast takes the system near Cedar Key (north of Tampa and south of the big bend). However, the hurricane center states that the track is highly uncertain, and after crossing Florida it would likely transform into an extratropical system and head northeast near the US coastline. It is projected to remain a Tropical Storm at this time, roughly 60 mph winds as it nears the coast. This and the track could change so keep an eye out on it.

Tropical Storm warnings are recommended, but not yet issued by the Cuban government for Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

It's fairly likely to become Alberto sometime today as well.

More to come later.

National Hurricane Center says:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102047
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN WESTERN CUBA...
...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N...85.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB