Who says figures lie? I wonder where that country song would hit, the surprisingly endearing one developed on '60 Minutes' to include every possible country cliche, the one about 'my mama got run over by a freight train the day they let me out of prison?':
IT will come as no surprise to anyone with an ear for music, but Abba's Eurovision-winning song Waterloo has all the characteristics of a surefire hit while this year's winner, Hard Rock Hallelujah by the outlandish Finnish band Lordi, doesn't.
The verdict was delivered by a computer running software developed for record companies to help them predict which songs will be hits and which will flop.
And it seems to work. Last week, Hard Rock Hallelujah was at number 25 on the British charts; Waterloo went to number one in 1974.
The developers claim the software can identify a potential Top 30 hit within 20 seconds and has an accuracy rate of at least 80 per cent.
Critics argue that the technology could stifle creativity and promote dull uniformity. But its backers say record labels may be encouraged to take more risks because the likely appeal of unusual songs can be judged in advance.
The program analyses 30 criteria including melody, beat, tempo, chord progression and cadence, and cross-refers them to a database of three million songs. It spots mathematical similarities even though songs might not sound the same or even be from the same genre.
It gives each piece of music a hit grading from zero to 1000. A score of 700 or more indicates the song falls into a cluster of existing hits on the database and, theoretically, has got what it takes to succeed. The software is also capable of scoring a new song on its longevity - its "classic grade".
The catchy Waterloo generated a hit rating of 722 and a classic grade of 764, justifying its enduring popularity. The software placed it in the same hit cluster as Keane's Is It Any Wonder? and Elton John's I Guess That's Why They Call It The Blues.
Lordi's song received a hit rating of just 368, way below the threshold for big-sellers.
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