Grasping At Straws

Both the NOGAPS and GFS models show the development of a storm just north and east of Hawaii on Feb. 13 - 14. The signal is quite strong in both models, so the storm will likely occur in some form. That's quite a while in the future and a long distance away from AZ, but it's the first storm in a long time to be in a place where it might plausibly affect future AZ and SoCal weather. It would take about four days after that to travel to the U.S. West Coast, arriving, say, Feb. 18 - 19, and a lot might happen to it in the mean time, but at least something is happening somewhere.

I was looking at some of the climate forecasts for the SW this spring. Total pessimism everywhere. Not surprising - there is a weak La Niña in effect, and spring is the driest season anyway. Hope everyone is wrong!