Dennis the Menace

Looks like an uncomfortable weekend coming up for folks in the Tampa/St. Petersburg Florida area. Tropical Storm Dennis is reaching Hurricane strength at this moment.

The NOGAPS forecast (generally the most reliable) shows Dennis crossing western Cuba, coming into the Gulf of Mexico, passing very close to Tampa, but passing by nevertheless, and crashing into the Alabama Gulf Coast, in a path reminiscent of last year's Hurricane Ivan (but a bit closer to the coast this time). Closest approach to Tampa will be mid-morning on Sunday. Winds are forecast to reach the 45 - 50 mph range, with higher gusts possible, but no direct hit forecast. Heaviest rains are forecast to be just offshore. There's always a chance for tornadoes, of course.

On the other hand, the GFS model shows a more powerful Dennis than NOGAPS forecasts, but passing farther off the coast, and crashing into the Mississippi Delta of Louisiana.

Let's hope the storm stays away from the coast.