Phoenix Rain

Regarding the upcoming storm in AZ, the weather forecasts seem to be showing a rather diffuse hit on the state, with the main punch actually hitting Sonora. There is a secondary punch too: the NOGAPS model shows it travelling up the Colorado River Valley to the west of Phoenix, and the GFS model shows it even farther west, travelling into the southern Sierra Nevada. Both forecasts show most of AZ lying between the two punches, and thus missing the worst.

Looking at the current satellite pictures of the eastern Pacific, though, I'm not convinced there will be a split punch. In my opinion, the little eastern Pacific subtropical low they are relying on to split the punch is too far south and too far west to do the job. I'm thinking the storm will directly hit AZ, so rain will be plentiful over the whole state.

We'll see!