Tuesday, January 25, 2005

My Opinion on Climate Change?

I always thought it was big mistake for the folks concerned about global warming to push a regulatory approach (Kyoto Protocol) as a solution. Unlike criteria pollutants, whose emissions are somewhat amenable to control, greenhouse emissions are difficult to control except by scaling back combustion. In addition, the greenhouse problem is cumulative in nature: scaling back emissions just delays the problem, it doesn't solve it.

Free debate is the best way for contrarians and climate scientists to come to a common understanding. The trouble, of course, is that when government action is under consideration, free debate becomes scarce. Interests speak then. Interests insist on no action. And that is what will happen. Except for opening ANWR, of course.

Regarding global warming, it's likely to happen, and may already be happening: CO2 levels are some 15% higher today than when I was born. Yet, the expression of that warming may be modulated significantly, particularly by cloud cover.

A technological revolution is required. Environmental folks should be speaking the language of revolution: real revolution, not regulation. Hybrid cars, not Kyoto Protocol. The oil interests realize that worldwide oil production is at or near its peak, and they may need to change their approach in time, perhaps largely abandoning oil. Big Oil is ready, or will be ready before too long, to be peeled away from Big Auto, because they aren't dummies, and they need to move on. Big Auto will resist for a longer time. Environmentalists need to change their approach, because regulation won't work for this problem.

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