Hawaii Lite
Right now, I'm quickly trying to learn how to mangle Hawaiian words with a false German accent, for INterACT Theater's "Ola Na Iwi" (The Bones Live), opening October 9th.
Meanwhile, DMTC's "Bye, Bye Birdie" premieres to night!
Friday, September 24, 2004
Just a Few Lost, Old (But Fit) Souls in a Step Aerobics Ghetto
Raymond at Midtown Athletic Club tells me they are cancelling Friday noon step aerobics and replacing it with Tai Chi, because our core people are so few. Besides, the industry is moving in a different direction, and we all have to make some sacrifices. WELL, EXCU-U-U-U-SE ME!
Raymond at Midtown Athletic Club tells me they are cancelling Friday noon step aerobics and replacing it with Tai Chi, because our core people are so few. Besides, the industry is moving in a different direction, and we all have to make some sacrifices. WELL, EXCU-U-U-U-SE ME!
Earth To Miami! Hello, Is This Microphone Working?
There seems to be a strange dissonance at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as they try to sort out Hurricane Jeanne's future path. Most models show a path approximately right along Florida's eastern shore, but a handful of models (NOGAPS among them) favor a path across Florida before the turn occurs. The different paths hinge on how quickly the high pressure system over the western Atlantic develops, moves east, and carries the hurricane with it.
Special soundings were taken at 18Z (1 p.m. EDT) which suggests the western-path models may be resolving the situation best. You would think that would mean NHC would then quickly adapt the western path as their favored forecast. But no! No change to their consensus eastern path forecast, at least not yet! Earth to Miami! Earth to Miami!
I would hope the eastern path forecast works out, on general principles - the fewer hurricanes roaming around Florida, the better - but right now, the western path looks more likely. The surface winds are still about 90 kt, with the storm beginning to strengthen. In all likelihood, the experience may be similar to Frances (perhaps a trifle weaker, because water temperatures are slightly cooler than they were).
Here is the most recent NHC discussion, in all its wonder:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 242059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA...INDICATE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED. WHILE RECON DATA ALSO INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS HAVE DEVELOPED...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT 5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER SINCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS NOW 965 MB...WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 96 KT SURFACE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10....BUT THE TREND IN THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGESTS A MOTION OF POSSIBLY 270/11. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF JEANNE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTH AND EASTWARD SHIFT AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JEANNE TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND NEARLY A 5F SST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN EYEWALL...CLEARLY INDCIATING THAT JEANNE HAS CREATED A LOT OF COLD UPWELLING UNDERNEATH THE HURRICANE. UNFORTUNATELY...JEANNE IS NOW MOVING FASTER AWAY FROM THOSE UNFAVORABLE OCEAN CONDITIONS AND TOWARD MUCH WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THEREFORE...STEADY INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 3/100 KT...IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS JEANNE UP TO 98 KT AND 99 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS....RESPECTIVELY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 26.4N 73.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 75.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.6N 77.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 27.4N 80.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 29.0N 81.4W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 35 KT
There seems to be a strange dissonance at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as they try to sort out Hurricane Jeanne's future path. Most models show a path approximately right along Florida's eastern shore, but a handful of models (NOGAPS among them) favor a path across Florida before the turn occurs. The different paths hinge on how quickly the high pressure system over the western Atlantic develops, moves east, and carries the hurricane with it.
Special soundings were taken at 18Z (1 p.m. EDT) which suggests the western-path models may be resolving the situation best. You would think that would mean NHC would then quickly adapt the western path as their favored forecast. But no! No change to their consensus eastern path forecast, at least not yet! Earth to Miami! Earth to Miami!
I would hope the eastern path forecast works out, on general principles - the fewer hurricanes roaming around Florida, the better - but right now, the western path looks more likely. The surface winds are still about 90 kt, with the storm beginning to strengthen. In all likelihood, the experience may be similar to Frances (perhaps a trifle weaker, because water temperatures are slightly cooler than they were).
Here is the most recent NHC discussion, in all its wonder:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 242059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA...INDICATE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED. WHILE RECON DATA ALSO INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS HAVE DEVELOPED...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT 5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER SINCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS NOW 965 MB...WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 96 KT SURFACE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10....BUT THE TREND IN THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGESTS A MOTION OF POSSIBLY 270/11. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF JEANNE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTH AND EASTWARD SHIFT AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JEANNE TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND NEARLY A 5F SST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN EYEWALL...CLEARLY INDCIATING THAT JEANNE HAS CREATED A LOT OF COLD UPWELLING UNDERNEATH THE HURRICANE. UNFORTUNATELY...JEANNE IS NOW MOVING FASTER AWAY FROM THOSE UNFAVORABLE OCEAN CONDITIONS AND TOWARD MUCH WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THEREFORE...STEADY INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 3/100 KT...IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS JEANNE UP TO 98 KT AND 99 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS....RESPECTIVELY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 26.4N 73.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 75.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.6N 77.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 27.4N 80.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 29.0N 81.4W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 35 KT
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
Kerry's Speech
Andrew Sullivan makes some excellent points.
I was impressed by Kerry's passing use of the phrase: 'truth to power.' The legacy of the Sixties lives on here, at their best, an inspiration to a new generation.
Andrew Sullivan makes some excellent points.
I was impressed by Kerry's passing use of the phrase: 'truth to power.' The legacy of the Sixties lives on here, at their best, an inspiration to a new generation.
Sunday's Freak Thunderstorm over Sacramento
It's time to commemorate Sunday's narrow but intense thunderstorm over downtown and eastern metropolitan Sacramento. The Sacramento Bee neatly summarizes the basic absurdity of the event: even though similar events happen elsewhere in the nation and world, the last event here was apparently in 1935 (I can't believe that: it's just that the city utility people had to have been too freaked out to thoroughly check the rainfall records, or maybe it applies just to downtown Sacramento).
Californians just aren't prepared for some kinds of meteorological events (I know I wasn't - I was cowering under the eaves of the dance studio, screaming for it to stop). We much prefer chewing our cud while watching panicked television coverage from Pensacola.
It's time to commemorate Sunday's narrow but intense thunderstorm over downtown and eastern metropolitan Sacramento. The Sacramento Bee neatly summarizes the basic absurdity of the event: even though similar events happen elsewhere in the nation and world, the last event here was apparently in 1935 (I can't believe that: it's just that the city utility people had to have been too freaked out to thoroughly check the rainfall records, or maybe it applies just to downtown Sacramento).
Californians just aren't prepared for some kinds of meteorological events (I know I wasn't - I was cowering under the eaves of the dance studio, screaming for it to stop). We much prefer chewing our cud while watching panicked television coverage from Pensacola.
Take Heart!
Michael Moore has great advice: don't quail, stop whining, and work for a Kerry victory in November!
New Zogby polls make the Electoral Vote Predictor shift back towards blue.
Kerry makes a joke that's actually quite funny!
Kerry's speech at NYU yesterday was great. He's finally landed a punch.
Michael Moore has great advice: don't quail, stop whining, and work for a Kerry victory in November!
New Zogby polls make the Electoral Vote Predictor shift back towards blue.
Kerry makes a joke that's actually quite funny!
Kerry's speech at NYU yesterday was great. He's finally landed a punch.
Monday, September 20, 2004
Ordet
On TCM, I saw much of Carl Theodor Dreyer's 1955 film Ordet (aka, The Word) this weekend. What a powerful, humbling masterpiece: makes you want to surrender the vanities of unbelief, and become a strict Lutheran, immediately! The slow measured pace, the intensity of emotion, the surprise ending - wow! Johannes, the apparent madman, sweeps all before him with his childlike faith, leaving no answer but faith.
On TCM, I saw much of Carl Theodor Dreyer's 1955 film Ordet (aka, The Word) this weekend. What a powerful, humbling masterpiece: makes you want to surrender the vanities of unbelief, and become a strict Lutheran, immediately! The slow measured pace, the intensity of emotion, the surprise ending - wow! Johannes, the apparent madman, sweeps all before him with his childlike faith, leaving no answer but faith.
Weekend Opinion & Commentary
Mission creep with airline security initiatives is compromising both civil rights and airline security.
Ruben Navarrette at the Dallas Morning News (link not yet posted) has a fine opinion piece about who benefits most from illegal immigration: Americans do!
The familiar Kryptonite bicycle locks that look so tough can be easily opened (link not posted, but apparently already a source of alarm in the bicycle world).
Plus, before too much time passes, it's good to mention Richard A. Posner's excellent critique in the New York Times of the 9/11 Commission Report. The 9/11 report mixed policy recommendations with reportage, and serves the interests of those who favor centralized intelligence (as opposed to more dispersed, and perhaps better intelligence).
Indeed, all kinds of unintuitive things were done post 9/11, the new Department of Homeland Security being just one small piece. Posner ends on a sobering note:
Mission creep with airline security initiatives is compromising both civil rights and airline security.
Ruben Navarrette at the Dallas Morning News (link not yet posted) has a fine opinion piece about who benefits most from illegal immigration: Americans do!
The familiar Kryptonite bicycle locks that look so tough can be easily opened (link not posted, but apparently already a source of alarm in the bicycle world).
Plus, before too much time passes, it's good to mention Richard A. Posner's excellent critique in the New York Times of the 9/11 Commission Report. The 9/11 report mixed policy recommendations with reportage, and serves the interests of those who favor centralized intelligence (as opposed to more dispersed, and perhaps better intelligence).
Indeed, all kinds of unintuitive things were done post 9/11, the new Department of Homeland Security being just one small piece. Posner ends on a sobering note:
When a person dies at the age of 95, his family is apt to ascribe his death to a medical failure. When the nation experiences a surprise attack, our instinctive reaction is not that we were surprised by a clever adversary but that we had the wrong strategies or structure and let's change them and then we'll be safe. Actually, the strategies and structure weren't so bad; they've been improved; further improvements are likely to have only a marginal effect; and greater dangers may be gathering of which we are unaware and haven't a clue as to how to prevent.
Sunday Storm
As part of the big trough digging into the American West, many clouds passed over the Sacramento Valley on Sunday morning. A powerful thunderstorm blew up directly over downtown and pelted CSU with 1.93" of rain: an amazing amount considering how little ever falls here in typical Septembers. I was trapped over at Ron Cisneros School of Dance by the downpour. And as quickly as the cell came, it dissipated.
North and east of Phoenix, AZ, they had similar storms, fueled in part by Hurricane Javier moisture. Remnants from the hurricane passed into NM and made it wet there.
As part of the big trough digging into the American West, many clouds passed over the Sacramento Valley on Sunday morning. A powerful thunderstorm blew up directly over downtown and pelted CSU with 1.93" of rain: an amazing amount considering how little ever falls here in typical Septembers. I was trapped over at Ron Cisneros School of Dance by the downpour. And as quickly as the cell came, it dissipated.
North and east of Phoenix, AZ, they had similar storms, fueled in part by Hurricane Javier moisture. Remnants from the hurricane passed into NM and made it wet there.
"Best of Broadway" and Other Theatrical Goings-On
On Saturday, the DMTC bunch went and saw David L. MacDonald's "Best of Broadway" at Luther Burbank High School on Florin Road. It was an excellent revue (the first time I've ever seen BOB, despite its standing as a Sacramento theatrical tradition), but I was most excited to see Aaron Clemens (with whom I had performed in Woodland Opera House's 'Guys and Dolls' and 'Forum') as the Gospel Chorus Leader, particularly with his solo 'I Gotta Keep Movin'.' Aaron is really coming into his own, as choral director (I missed seeing him after the show, though). And his partner and former DMTC player, Tom Norris, was also featured in several numbers.
I was amazed by the skilled, tall women specialty ensemble dancers in "Best of Broadway." The choreographers Diana Ruslin and Terri Taylor-Solorio have really done a fabulous job. Indeed, there is almost a tradition of tall dancers there: Jillian Owens came to DMTC (in part) from there (before she left for Broadway), and we saw her mother, and still a BOB Board Member, Julie Owens, in the lobby. But the most impressive dancer was quite short and slight: Bailey Buntain, in her solo in 'A New Life, from 'Jekyll and Hyde.' Erin Jones (junior, as we say at DMTC) and Enrique Ruiz were also part of this year's cast.
In other developments, in the theater of my sleeping head, I dreamt I saw Michael Miiller enter a fireplace, turn right, and walk down a railway in the fireplace, only to flee just seconds later when a locomotive came down the tracks. Steve Isaacson insists the dream has gay overtones, but I think I was impressed by the fairly-new presence of light-rail near Burbank High School.
I doubt I'll do 'Anything Goes' at DMTC this autumn. Following a phone contact yesterday by Dennis Yep, this evening I'm going to try out for a part as a clueless German anthropologist in an INTERACT Theater Hawaiian mystery, 'The Bones Live,' which opens next month.
On Saturday, the DMTC bunch went and saw David L. MacDonald's "Best of Broadway" at Luther Burbank High School on Florin Road. It was an excellent revue (the first time I've ever seen BOB, despite its standing as a Sacramento theatrical tradition), but I was most excited to see Aaron Clemens (with whom I had performed in Woodland Opera House's 'Guys and Dolls' and 'Forum') as the Gospel Chorus Leader, particularly with his solo 'I Gotta Keep Movin'.' Aaron is really coming into his own, as choral director (I missed seeing him after the show, though). And his partner and former DMTC player, Tom Norris, was also featured in several numbers.
I was amazed by the skilled, tall women specialty ensemble dancers in "Best of Broadway." The choreographers Diana Ruslin and Terri Taylor-Solorio have really done a fabulous job. Indeed, there is almost a tradition of tall dancers there: Jillian Owens came to DMTC (in part) from there (before she left for Broadway), and we saw her mother, and still a BOB Board Member, Julie Owens, in the lobby. But the most impressive dancer was quite short and slight: Bailey Buntain, in her solo in 'A New Life, from 'Jekyll and Hyde.' Erin Jones (junior, as we say at DMTC) and Enrique Ruiz were also part of this year's cast.
In other developments, in the theater of my sleeping head, I dreamt I saw Michael Miiller enter a fireplace, turn right, and walk down a railway in the fireplace, only to flee just seconds later when a locomotive came down the tracks. Steve Isaacson insists the dream has gay overtones, but I think I was impressed by the fairly-new presence of light-rail near Burbank High School.
I doubt I'll do 'Anything Goes' at DMTC this autumn. Following a phone contact yesterday by Dennis Yep, this evening I'm going to try out for a part as a clueless German anthropologist in an INTERACT Theater Hawaiian mystery, 'The Bones Live,' which opens next month.
Sunday, September 19, 2004
Cloudy's Ill
So I got ambitious on Saturday, and I gave the pets a bath. This time, however, Cloudy the Lop-Eared Rabbit took the shock hard, and she's been virtually catatonic ever since, giving up food and basically shutting down. I took her into my bed, but had to put her down on the floor after awhile: I'd doze and dream she would leap off the bed into a lightning-filled pit. She's been a little more active today, but I'm still worried: it was September in 1999, after all, that Sinbad the Lop-Eared Rabbit suddenly died.
So I got ambitious on Saturday, and I gave the pets a bath. This time, however, Cloudy the Lop-Eared Rabbit took the shock hard, and she's been virtually catatonic ever since, giving up food and basically shutting down. I took her into my bed, but had to put her down on the floor after awhile: I'd doze and dream she would leap off the bed into a lightning-filled pit. She's been a little more active today, but I'm still worried: it was September in 1999, after all, that Sinbad the Lop-Eared Rabbit suddenly died.
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