Earth To Miami! Hello, Is This Microphone Working?


There seems to be a strange dissonance at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as they try to sort out Hurricane Jeanne's future path. Most models show a path approximately right along Florida's eastern shore, but a handful of models (NOGAPS among them) favor a path across Florida before the turn occurs. The different paths hinge on how quickly the high pressure system over the western Atlantic develops, moves east, and carries the hurricane with it.

Special soundings were taken at 18Z (1 p.m. EDT) which suggests the western-path models may be resolving the situation best. You would think that would mean NHC would then quickly adapt the western path as their favored forecast. But no! No change to their consensus eastern path forecast, at least not yet! Earth to Miami! Earth to Miami!

I would hope the eastern path forecast works out, on general principles - the fewer hurricanes roaming around Florida, the better - but right now, the western path looks more likely. The surface winds are still about 90 kt, with the storm beginning to strengthen. In all likelihood, the experience may be similar to Frances (perhaps a trifle weaker, because water temperatures are slightly cooler than they were).

Here is the most recent NHC discussion, in all its wonder:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 242059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA...INDICATE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED. WHILE RECON DATA ALSO INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS HAVE DEVELOPED...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT 5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER SINCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS NOW 965 MB...WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 96 KT SURFACE WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10....BUT THE TREND IN THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGESTS A MOTION OF POSSIBLY 270/11. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF JEANNE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTH AND EASTWARD SHIFT AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JEANNE TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND NEARLY A 5F SST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN EYEWALL...CLEARLY INDCIATING THAT JEANNE HAS CREATED A LOT OF COLD UPWELLING UNDERNEATH THE HURRICANE. UNFORTUNATELY...JEANNE IS NOW MOVING FASTER AWAY FROM THOSE UNFAVORABLE OCEAN CONDITIONS AND TOWARD MUCH WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THEREFORE...STEADY INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 3/100 KT...IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS JEANNE UP TO 98 KT AND 99 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS....RESPECTIVELY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 26.4N 73.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 75.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.6N 77.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 27.4N 80.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 29.0N 81.4W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 81.2W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 35 KT