Pleading With the Almighty

It's been a remarkable start to the Western rainy season so far: the ski areas in the Sierras have had their earliest start in 50 years. Nevertheless, the National Weather Service is not so sanguine:

[T]he recent stormy circulation pattern will likely not persist through the forecast period, with a drier and milder regime expected for much of the November-January period.

Come on, that's a cheap forecast! Big Rossby waves, the ones that really place a stamp on the climate's favorability, rarely stay in place an entire season! Even a child could make that forecast, or for that matter, this, more optimistic forecast:

Looking beyond this outlook period, various seasonal forecast models, as well as historical analogues with weak to moderate El Niño events, suggest improving odds for significant rain and snow toward late winter and spring across the Southwest, including the Colorado River Basin, and that could bode well for mountain snowpack this spring.

Here's to the power of prayer (even if from an agnostic heart), and the staying power of favorable Rossby waves!