The Storm Next Time

It's always hard to know with hurricanes. Two factors promote them: 1.) warm surface water temperatures, and 2.) low vertical wind shear. If you don't have both factors going for you it's unlikely you'll get a hurricane. 

Hurricane Erin is now fluctuating between a Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane: the first Big One of the Atlantic season. All of the models have been 100% consistent that Hurricane Erin will break north, away from the Bahamas towards low pressure to the north, and miss Florida altogether. It might menace Bermuda and Newfoundland, but despite its size and strength Erin will probably affect very few people. 

I’m worried about the storm AFTER Erin. It doesn't exist yet but it’s the one to worry about. It will form farther south, causing all kinds of Caribbean misery. Current modeling suggests the storm will approach Florida. One scenario has it raking the western Florida coast from south to north on Thursday, August 28th - nearly two weeks away. A later modeling scenario shows the storm missing Florida, but slamming into North Carolina instead. The storm will be too close to the American mainland and it's bound to hit something. 

Who knows, maybe it will hit Mar-a-Lago instead?