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Hi Dwight:
The storm in the Caribbean is winding up slowly, and so another storm near the Canary Islands was able to grab the Tropical Storm Hermine label. So, the storm in the Caribbean will be called Hurricane Ian.
Currently, forecasts for the west Florida coast look bleak. The trap has been sprung. D-Day is likely Wednesday, September 28th. Water temperatures are high enough in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to sustain a major hurricane. A large trough is forecast to drop into the American Midwest as Ian approaches, which means steering currents directing the storm into the west Florida coast are likely to be stable and strong, which in turn means the hurricane won't dance around much, or change directions at the last minute.
The best outcome for Tampa/St. Pete would be a near-miss, as the storm passes by for a landfall farther north, leaving you basically with 60 mph sustained winds and heavy rain for at least a day. The worst outcomes are all-too-possible: a Hurricane Michael sort of annihilation of the waterfront.
So, if you have plans for an evacuation, you might dust them off. Stock plenty of gasoline and lots of water, and electrical generators, and all the rest. Get ready to board windows. This might be the Big One.
Marc
[UPDATE: There remains uncertainty regarding where the storm will go. The GFS model now places landfall right along the MS/AL border, near Mobile, Alabama. The NVG model places landfall at around where the Suwannee River empties into the Gulf, which is way too close to Tampa for comfort (closest approach around midnight on Wednesday). Even if the eye doesn't come for Tampa, there might be terrible amounts of rain coming with the storm. There is discussion the storm's forward motion might slow as the storm approaches landfall, and the storm might be weakening as it approaches landfall, due to wind shear. So, the news remains not good.]
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