Monday, May 21, 2018

Weekend Wetness in Florida

First indication that the hypothetical system exists. Currently called Disturbance #1. National Hurricane Center (NHC) says:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Even though NHC believes chances of development are low, the system is a rainmaker, and there is a reasonable chance development might occur anyway. The forecasts continue to be scattershot regarding a path. Currently the GFS model brings the system directly over Tampa on the weekend, but the NVG model brings the system farther west, missing Tampa with the worst rain, and revving up to a tropical storm before crashing into the Biloxi, MS coast. So, it looks like this week will be wet in Florida, with the coming weekend particularly wet.

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