Wednesday, September 06, 2017

Tuesday Evening Forecasts For Irma

At the moment, most of the models (NVG, GFS, & others) are sticking with a storm path that moves Irma up Florida's east coast. Interestingly, the National Hurricane Center suggests a path that moves the storm further west, towards west Florida, but most of the models are not supportive of that scenario. The hurricane has to execute nearly a 90-degree turn Saturday evening in order to keep the storm east of Florida. A sharp turn like that is unusual, but not unprecedented. If the turn happens late, or is less than sharp, Florida will take the full brunt of the storm.

Currently, NVG indicates landfall near Edisto Beach, SC (Monday evening, Sept. 11th), which places Charleston, SC, in the storm-surge-vulnerable eastern quadrant of the storm. South Carolina is likely to take the full force of the storm.

Follow-up Hurricane Jose may follow a circular path near the Bahamas, but there is no sign at the moment of it coming close to the U.S.

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