Tuesday, December 30, 2014

I Got A Bad Feeling About QZ8501

I've got a bad feeling about this AirAsia QZ8501 crash. It may be a scandal once they get to the black boxes and figure out what caused the crash.

The crash of Air France 447 (AF447) on June 1, 2009 showed the Airbus A330 aircraft had a total, complete vulnerability to icing in thunderstorms. AF447's pilots were forced to fly through the thunderstorm wall of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) - they had no choice, because the thunderstorm wall over the eastern Atlantic was so big and long. The aircraft had three-fold redundancy with their air speed indicator Pitot tubes, and all three tubes failed, because they all work the same way and all three tubes experienced heavy icing and stopped working. A huge vulnerability was exposed by this crash.

And so, what has been done about the vulnerability? Maybe nuthin'? Indonesia sits within the ITCZ - they can't avoid it. They are forced to fly through thunderstorms from time to time. Early reports were the last recorded airspeed of QZ8501 (an Airbus A330-200) was unusually low. Perhaps the pilots were misled by their instruments about airspeed? Perhaps it's Pitot tubes icing up again?

Which may mean that modern aircraft - at least the Airbus A330, and maybe all modern airliners - are extremely vulnerable to thunderstorms. Like maybe you shouldn't even think about taking a trip in them, especially if you are traveling through the ITCZ, which means travelers to and from the Southern Hemisphere, or anywhere around the Equator, should beware.

I've got a bad feeling....

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