The National Weather Service People Are Optimistic About Rainfall This Summer In New Mexico

In their view, beneficent amounts depend mostly on how rapidly El Niño develops:

Precipitation in previous monsoon seasons during the onset year of a moderate to strong El Niño event were above to well above 1981-2010 climatological averages at sites throughout northern and central New Mexico.

Data from the previous 7 onset years of moderate to strong El Niño events suggest that if current SST trends in the Pacific Ocean basin continue into late this Spring and early Summer, the probability for an above average 2014 monsoon season is greater to much greater than average.

If for some unforeseen reason a moderate to strong El Niño does not materialize or is slow to develop, chances for an above average monsoon season precipitation decrease and the probability for below average precipitation increases. This does not appear to be the case, however, with recent SST anomaly trends indicating a climatologically early onset.