Idle Fukushima Calculations

Here I am, sitting in my California Cave, and worrying about what radiation levels are likely to occur in California from the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster.

Here is a chart of modeled total radiation dose (y-axis; in rem) as a function of distance (x axis; in miles). For what it's worth, let's extrapolate this across the Pacific. (I know, I know, this is ill-advised, but you use whatever tools you have in your comfortable, well-appointed California Cave.)

Modeled results come a report. If I take modeled radiation dose levels from here, and try to fit their longer-distance behavior with a simple curve (hyperbolic cosecant seems to work fairly-well at these distances: dose (rem) = 130*csch(0.067* distance (miles))), then extrapolate it to California (5,150 miles away), I get 3.6e-148 rem, which is reassurringly low.

Nevertheless, it looks like areas within 35 miles, or so, of the power plant are above 25 rem (which is where you begin noticing radiation damage). I don't know what the thresholds are for warning people away (apparently our government is warning Americans within 50 miles distance to get away), but they are certainly at hazardous levels within 35 miles distance.

So, all is copacetic here in California. For now.

And hoping there are no new alarming developments....