Fear Not The Man From NYC

This is an interesting theory:

The hosts of Fox News’ Fox & Friends have offered up a theory as to why the White House got personally involved in the New York governor’s race and asked Gov. David Paterson not to run again: They believe he would be vulnerable to a challenge by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and a gubernatorial win by Giuliani would set the Republican up for a White House challenge in 2012.

...The New York Times reported Sunday that the White House had asked Paterson, through an intermediary, not to run for re-election. Paterson, who became governor of New York last year after then-Governor Eliot Spitzer resigned in a sex scandal, recently garnered a 21-percent approval rating from New Yorkers.

The same poll showed that, in a theoretical match-up, Giuliani would take 60 percent of the vote to Paterson’s 34 percent. However, the poll also shows that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, would beat Giuliani 53 percent to 43 percent. Sixty-seven percent of respondents wanted Cuomo to run, compared to 58 percent for Giuliani.

If Paterson is that weak, perhaps he shouldn't run, but there is no reason to particularly fear Giuliani. In the 2008 Republican primaries, Giuliani failed to grasp the dynamics of the campaign, and focused on a slow-start post-Super-Tuesday strategy, beginning with an intense focus on the State of Florida. Mike Huckabee also focused on a post-Super-Tuesday strategy, out of necessity, because that's where his strength was, with smaller states that would vote later. Only John McCain correctly saw that, with the biggest states voting on Super Tuesday, that the campaign would certainly end that day, and he went to extremes of debt to ensure he had (barely) enough money to prevail on that day. McCain had the guts to do what was necessary to save his campaign and that's why he prevailed, despite fierce opposition from other candidates.

So, to prevail in 2012, headstrong Giuliani would have to show he is capable of learning from his 2008 campaign mistakes. My guess is that cool strategic thinking is beyond Guiliani. There is nothing for Obama to fear. Maybe Paterson shouldn't run, but for sensible reasons beyond fear of Rudy.