Al Gore On Cyclone Nargis

Al Gore says it was Global Warming:

“And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,” Gore said. “And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming.”

Gore claimed global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

“It’s also important to note that the emerging consensus among the climate scientists is although any individual storm can’t be linked singularly to global warming – we’ve always had hurricanes,” Gore said. “Nevertheless, the trend toward more Category 5 storms – the larger ones and trend toward stronger and more destructive storms appears to be linked to global warming and specifically to the impact of global warming on higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.”

Indeed, Global Warming could affect the strength of hurricanes, since these storms are particularly sensitive to surface sea temperatures. Nevertheless, the consensus that Gore claims is emerging has not yet emerged. That is because there are other factors, such as wind shear, that are just as important as sea surface temperature, yet less-closely linked to greenhouse gases. And increasing storm strength in one ocean basin can be offset by declining storm strength in other ocean basins - not the sort of effect one would expect from a global perturbation. In my view, the climatic record we have is not long enough yet to go around making categorical statements regarding storm strength and Global Warming.

I thought it was very unfortunate that Laura Bush decided to play politics by criticizing the Myanmar government at this time. Those dictators are a sorry bunch of toads, of course, but new criticism will just delay aid from reaching the people who need it most. A respectful approach could help open the region to the outside world, however, like it did for the Aceh region of Indonesia, as a result of international aid flowing for the victims of the 2004 Tsunami, but asking the Bushies to rein in their contempt for the rest of the world for a minute seems beyond them. Don't the Bushies get it? For each harsh word, someone dies needlessly, *right now*. But then, the Bush Administration's approach to the 2004 Tsunami was equally bad, if not worse, with the U.S. offering laughably-small amounts of money to assist until quite late. It's time for Laura to shut her piehole and get to work.

What I thought was unusual about the Myanmar Cyclone was that it occurred in the month of May. Northern Hemisphere hurricanes, even in the tropics, are unusual in the month of May. It was unfortunate that the storm swept across the heavily-populated Irrawaddy River Delta the way it did. The storm's path, and the accompanying storm surge, were almost ideal for causing the maximum possible amount of damage.