Australian Weather Forecasts Diverge Over The Next Week

The NOGAPS synoptic forecast model, the one I trust most, suggests that a tropical storm will soon develop off the coast of Queensland and be in a position, on Monday and Tuesday, to cause some rainfall in the Brisbane area as it passes southward offshore. Although the model doesn't suggest the rains will penetrate that far inland, it may be in a position to help Lake Wivenhoe a little (this morning at 19.41% storage).

The Queensland office of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology is taking this development seriously.

Nevertheless, there is an interesting divergence of opinions about Australian weather over the next week.

NOGAPS also suggests that the tropical low now over Arnhem land in the Northern Territories will blossom into a major tropical cyclone, and perhaps menace the West Australia coast in 10 days or so.

The Darwin office of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology is currently dismissive of the chances of that tropical low developing.

I've noticed that NOGAPS tends to overestimate the chances of tropical cyclones developing, in general, so maybe the Darwin office has reason to be complacent, but it will be interesting to watch and see who is right.