Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Just Not Worth The Trouble

Much lower prices for electronics has had a side effect in Scotland: much lower burglary rates:
Housebreakings, as the crime is called in Scotland, recorded by the police have halved in the last ten years - from 71,995 in 1995-6 to 34,959 in 2004-5.

... A television that costs £300 now would have cost £870 in real terms in 1995 and £1,122 in 1985.

The biggest price drops have been witnessed in film-playing machines. In the 1980s, a Betamax cost the equivalent of £967 in today's money, while in the Nineties a VHS cost £406. Now DVD players are available in supermarkets for as little as £29.99. Esure says there has been a 32 per cent decrease in the frequency of burglary claims in Scotland over three years.

... Dr Malcolm Cook, forensic psychologist at Abertay University, said the economics of crime had turned against housebreaking.

"When something is stolen and sold on, the seller can never recover the full value of the property," he said. "Most people prefer to steal from shops. Despite their relatively sophisticated electronic surveillance, the ability to outwit the surveillance is common knowledge amongst those who commit that type of crime.

"It is more efficient to go up to someone in the street and threaten them for their mobile phone. It is quicker, and your chances of success are higher. The falling value of electrical goods means housebreaking no longer makes sense. Even the simplest of criminal minds will carry out a risk-benefit analysis. Breaking into houses is not trivial and there is no guarantee you will get quality goods. It's a bit like gambling. If you break into a house, the forensic footprint you leave makes it extremely likely that you will get caught.

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