Examining An Iceberg

Even the pessimists would be surprised how big a problem it is:

The National Council on Problem Gambling kicked off an education campaign this week by noting that 2 percent to 3 percent of Americans - or about 6 to 9 million adults - have gambling problems.

Numbers can be worth a thousand words. They also can have political and social implications. That's why the National Council's estimate is bad news for the casino industry - it's two or three times as high as the 1 percent rate often cited by the industry.

The greater the percentage of problem gamblers, the tougher it is for the gaming industry to persuade states without casinos that the economic effect of gambling - jobs, tourism, and especially taxes - more than offsets the social cost of increased exposure to casino gambling.

... The 1 percent rate often cited by the casino industry represents only a narrow category of people defined by treatment experts as "pathological gamblers," he said. "It's a fairly limited number that doesn't represent the full scope of people with gambling problems."

The industry-cited number is taken from a 1997 study that collected and extrapolated from much of the previous available research on the subject.

... The 2 percent to 3 percent estimate cited by the National Council is based on a more representative group of people who showed signs of problem gambling behavior in the past year, not just "pathological gamblers" who exhibited the most severe problems, Whyte said.

... "The issue is whether there are questions that are raised that can't be answered using data that's five years old," Volberg said. "Presumably it's time.

"You didn't have Internet gambling available to the extent you have now,'' she said. "You didn't have the poker phenomenon you have now. Nevada has the highest immigration rate in the United States, so the population may be changing demographically in a way that can affect the numbers."