False Comfort

Another sham success in the U.S. Missile Defense system. This time, the attacking warhead didn't even exist: it was computer-generated:

A ground-based interceptor missile was launched from Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands against a simulated target, the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency said late on Tuesday night.

The simulation was based on a hypothetical missile launch from Kodiak, Alaska, using data from previous launches, said the agency, known as MDA.

In full-fledged interceptor tests of the so-called Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System, the system has successfully shot down five live targets in 10 tries.

The last successful intercept took place in October 2002. The interceptor failed to launch in the two tests that preceded the latest one, in February 2005 and December 2004.

The latest test was designed chiefly to evaluate the performance of the interceptor missile's rocket motor system and Raytheon Co.-built "exoatmospheric kill vehicle," the bit designed to smash into the target warhead and pulverize it in space, MDA said.

It also successfully tested, among other things, silo support equipment, the agency said.

Last February, a ground support arm in the silo malfunctioned because of hinge corrosion caused by what MDA later said had been "salt air fog" that entered the underground silo.

Twenty-five years ago, physicists like Freeman Dyson showed how easy it is to overwhelm a missile defense system. Attacking missiles are cheap, compared to defensive missiles. So, instead of attacking a target with one missile, attack it with two. Or ten. Or twenty. Eventually, one makes it through, and the target is wiped out. Imagine playing sudden-death defensive basketball, against a team where everyone has a basketball!

To test an effective missile defense, divide the Air Force team into two: a Red Team in Alaska and a Blue Team at Kwajalein Atoll. Red Team gets to attack whenever and however they feel like (just like in reality!) Then, let's see how well the Blue Team does!