'Never Mind' Says The Model!

The NOGAPS model runs today have abruptly changed their minds - no more Bay of Campeche storms, no Columbus Day New Orleans Hurricane - nothing! Fickle, these models are! The model instead posits that Tropical Storm Stan will blow through Mexico's isthmus of Tehuantepec, and redevelop into a coast-hugging Pacific storm, before finally dying out in southern Mexico. Southern Mexico and northern Central America are still a wretched mess.

In the Atlantic, the Bahaman wave has strengthened into Tropical Storm Tammy, which will rake the east Florida coast before sweeping into Georgia and the Carolinas, and before getting swept up into the big trough passing through the Atlantic seaboard. There is an excellent discussion here (Clark Evans' 'One Fine Mess.')

Tammy's upper-level support will pass over the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico, and thus be displaced significantly from the Atlantic storm itself. Heavy showers will initiate in the Gulf of Mexico, NW of Tampa, in response to the upper-level support, but are unlikely to develop into anything more than just heavy showers. It's a good thing when a storm can't quite get itself organized!

There is a marked weakening in the tropical storms still active. The Caribbean is quieting down. We aren't out of the woods yet for this year, but there are signs that the tropics are beginning to settle down.