OBL's Video

Talking about Halloween, Osama is back! Despite the splash of the video's appearance just before the election, I think the video will actually have very little impact on the election. The reason is that Osama apparently doesn't want to influence the election so much as he wants to take advantage of the election, for his own purposes. The video is Al Qaeda advertising.

Why is it that beer companies always advertise during the Super Bowl, when they can get much lower rates at other times? It's because a very large audience is focused on just one event! Same here! Everyone is watching the American election. That's the best time for Osama to make a public appearance! He drives the point home by his choice of language (apparently this is his first video in which he uses common vs. Koranic Arabic). Usually, Al Qaeda release videos after a major terrorist event, in order to claim credit and make vague threats. Not this time. Osama bin Laden makes no specific threats this time.

It's just advertising, and the American public, the most ad-savvy populace in history, has already taken the message's measure, and discounted it (particularly so since, as Mickey Kaus points out, the video was released to America on a Friday, when bad news generally is released, since it gets poor coverage just before the weekend: probably at the direction of the Administration). In general, advertising works through repetition, and there just isn't time available to get enough repetition in order to make a really strong impression on the American electorate.

Osama's message to the American people focused on two points - mocking Bush and girding his minions for further war:

And even more dangerous and bitter for America is that the Mujahideen recently forced Bush to resort to emergency funds to continue the fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is evidence of the success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan – with Allah's permission.

It is true that this shows that al-Qaida has gained, but on the other hand, it shows that the Bush administration has also gained, something of which anyone who looks at the size of the contracts acquired by the shady Bush administration-linked mega-corporations, like Haliburton and its kind, will be convinced. And it all shows that the real loser is...you.

It is the American people and their economy. And for the record, we had agreed with the Commander-General Muhammad Ataa, Allah have mercy on him, that all the operations should be carried out within twenty minutes, before Bush and his administration notice. It never occurred to us that the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces would abandon 50,000 of his citizens in the twin towers to face those great horrors alone, the time when they most needed him. But because it seemed to him that occupying himself by talking to the little girl about the goat and its butting was more important than occupying himself with the planes and their butting of the skyscrapers. We were given three times the period required to execute the operations – All Praise is Due to Allah.

Osama is implicitly saying the real choice isn't Bush vs. Kerry, it's the West vs. the Caliphate.

In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No.

The clash of civilizations continues, no matter who might win the American election.