Electoral Forecasts, Cheap

John:
OK, here are the numbers you have been waiting for. My call on the presidential race is, for the first time, moving to the right of the decimal point. The final popular vote will be:

Kerry 49.8%
Bush 49.2%

This will be valid whether or not Bush attempts a pre-election surprise. In all likelihood bin Laden has been dead for some time and al Zarqawi will not be taken alive (besides, he doesn't have the same level of significance of bin Laden). The surrender of insurgents in Fallujah could happen but again without effect. I fully expect al Qaida or offshoot groups to attempt a major terrorist attack in the days before the election but it is highly unlikely to be on American soil. A bombing of an embassy in a third world country or an anti-aircraft missile attack on a civilian airliner, again in a third world country, would be the most probable scenario. But an airliner with a few Americans or Israelis going down in, say, Egypt would not be a big event for most Americans (how much attention have people paid to the terrorist attacks last week on Israeli tourists in Egypt?).

So there is my prediction. Have the champagne ready on election night, though with the closeness of the race it may not be decided immediately (Bush is mobilizing forces to make sure republicans will use any trick necessary to win in close states). But in spite of that effort I remain confident of a Kerry victory.

Marc:
Good shot! I tend to be a bit more optimistic. I say Kerry 50%; Bush 48%; Nader, Badnarik and others 2%. Kerry gets 325 electoral votes (winning NM, NV, MO, OH, FL, WI, MN, ME and WV), and Bush gets 213 electoral votes (winning IA, VA, NC and all of CO). Very similar to your prediction: a very close race, but Kerry gets the turnout edge.

Myself, I don't think Al Qaeda is interested in particular in a pre-election surprise. They don't need any excuse to continue to do the things they do. Their eyes are on the bigger prize: a clash of civilizations! I doubt they have the same sensation of Gotterdamerung we have, with this particular election. They are looking for Crusaders, man!

Actually, I've noticed a pre-election calm settling in. Very little newsworthy is happening. That is probably a bad sign of things to come. Karl Rove must be busy.