Prediction

Given the unusual polarization of the electorate I wasn't really surprised that Kerry didn't get much of a post-convention bounce. In fact, I predicted it (although I kept the prediction to myself, so it doesn't count). The second part of the prediction, however, has yet to occur, so it's game: I predict that not only will George W. Bush fail to get much of a bounce from the Republican convention, he will actually see an erosion of his support. I think this will happen because of outrageous rhetoric at the convention and the antagonistic and hostile welcome the Republicans will get in New York.

Looking at current electoral vote predictions, it's quite impressive to see just how close they hew to the 2000 Election results. What a brittle, polarized, stubborn group of people we've all become!