Ad Buys and Battleground States
 
There was an interesting article in the Sunday New York Times showing where the Bush and Kerry campaigns are buying television advertising (maps unfortunately appear only in the print edition).  Not surprisingly, most of the money is going into places considered electoral toss-ups.  Nevertheless, there are some battleground areas where very little money is being spent, and I find that a puzzle. 
 
For example, despite large TV ad buys in New Mexico (my home state), there appears to be nothing happening in the Las Cruces area (second-largest city in the state).  That's no doubt because Las Cruces is far from Albuquerque, the state's largest city, but much closer to El Paso, Texas, and since Texas is considered a Bush lock, little advertising is coming their way.  Nevertheless, the state went for Gore by just a few hundred votes in 2000, and it would seem just prudent for both campaigns to toss some money into the El Paso TV market.  What gives?
 
Similarly, entire states are being neglected that have shown rather close margins in recent polls.  For example, Tennessee.  Or North and South Carolina.  Arizona too (I wonder how solid those recent polls are that showed a Bush surge there after McCain squelched the Democratic veep talk, given how equivocal the polls had been before?  Times, they may be a changin'.)
 
There's a lot of room for mistakes here!