Ruidoso Trading Post Video

Flooding!

 

Esparto Fireworks Explosion - July 1, 2025

I haven't been out to Esparto for awhile. Chavo used to live out there and Brian taught out there, and sometimes I used to drive through on the way up Highway 16. Not much happens there. Until now. Seven dead, and an investigation is underway. The facility apparently didn't have a local permit, but it was run by a Woodland police captain and so, surprise! The place stored many fireworks.

 

@nizag_18 Original Audio! Esparto Explotion! Watch to the end for a different video! #Esparto #fireworks ♬ original sound - Niza✨

Find The Human In It

Protesting on Saturday was interesting. I arrived fashionably late at the Tesla dealership on Arden Blvd. (11:20 a.m.) and took my usual spot, right by the driveway, baking in the full sun and waving two signs. 

At noon, most protesters left, but some headed over to the new protest folks had started at the intersection of Howe and Arden. Since I arrived late I stayed at Tesla until I was the only one left. (I like being the only protester, but fewer people honk when you are the only one out there.) 

At 1 p.m., I decided to head over to Howe and Arden and introduce myself to the people there. There was more traffic, and even more support from passing motorists. There were a few grumps too. For several weeks we've been keeping an eye on the Good Humor man of the neighborhood, who drives past with his popsicles saying cranky things. On Saturday, I thought I heard him say "There is no butterflies...." but perhaps I misunderstood. 

Afterwards, I ate lunch with the organizers of this particular demonstration: two brothers, and their friend, from SoCal. The brothers explained their unusual path. 

Both brothers were from a small California town (which was also the site of a prison) and were raised as fundamentalist Christians. The older brother had been a Christian minister for 15 years. The younger brother was rules-focused and worked at the prison, where rules are all. Both would describe themselves as being on the hard right. 

"I can easily remember my approach to illegal immigration," the younger brother explained. "You create a rule. You set up little stations every few feet along the border that emit poison gas. No one can cross. Period. Problem solved!" 

Then, something happened. They both received a challenge (whether through their faith, or elsewhere, was unclear). The challenge was: "Find the human in it." "So, no matter what rule I might think of, no matter how perfect the rule might be, I now had to figure out how a fallible human trapped in the system being might have to deal with it." 

Lo and behold, in the face of this challenge to find the human angle in rules-based systems, the brothers' entire Christian faith spun away from them. Even more surprising, for the first time in their lives, they found themselves politically on the Left. 

And so now, the brothers organize protests. "I sometimes feel like I have Imposter's Syndrome." the younger brother explained, "I know exactly how right-wingers think, because until five years ago I was one myself, but as long as I 'find the human in it,' I'll be all right."

 

"Guys and Dolls" - Stage Right Productions - July 5, 2025

Curious Political Statement Here

I'm curious about what the political statement is here. A Christian cross plus an Israeli flag. In front of Arden Fair Mall, about 3 p.m., Saturday, July 5th.

Farewell to Naugahyde and Herring Week

Walking Jasper and Max. Hard to get a cute picture out of them when they are both on a mission. 

Max is visiting for the week. Jasper is used to getting all my attention, so he’s jealous. 

I’ve had a problem. I bought a bunch of different dog treats for Jasper, but he’s picky about what he eats. Food is not his prime motivator. The enticing Canine Carryouts, from Topeka, Kansas, that look like corporate Naugahyde injected with artificial color and flavor? Jasper won’t touch them. The Wild Caught Herring, the smelliest fish in the Baltic Sea, kept in a warm plastic bag for, oh, maybe a year? “Please, no!” says Jasper. 

But as soon as Jasper realizes Max has no such qualms and will soon get all the treats, Jasper wants the treats too. 

This is Farewell to Naugahyde and Herring Week.

As Ever, Hypocrisy on the Right

What comes to mind is the hypocrisy of the Right when they pontificate about freedom of speech. As always, they lash out with a vengeance at those who actually speak freely:

In the post that preceded the end of her time at Blue Fish Pediatrics, Propst alluded to how Kerr county had – like Texas as a whole – voted in favor of Trump as he defeated former vice-president Kamala Harris in November’s White House election. Trump’s administration has since eliminated mentions of the ongoing climate crisis and its consequences, one of which is downpours like the one that devastated Kerr becoming more common. He has also mused about “phasing out” the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), in part so that the president’s office could be in charge of distributing disaster relief funds and ultimately “give out less money”. 

“May all visitors, children, non-Maga voters and pets be safe and dry,” said the post, which invoked an acronym for Trump’s “Make America great again” slogan. “Kerr county Maga voted to gut Fema. They deny climate change. May they get what they voted for.”

The post concluded with the phrase: “Bless their hearts,” which in the US south is often used as a condescending insult.

The Available Information

There is an interesting discussion here about the weather forecasts available for Texas when the flooding started, with the conclusion that the forecasts were adequate. The breakdown occurred with how the flash flood warnings were used. 

There are situations when weather emergencies sneak up on people. Tropical Storm Barry didn’t last very long. Once it came ashore in Mexico it unraveled into the general humid murk of southern Mexico, but it still retained enough integrity to be identifiable as it slowly moved uphill, and north. There are many cases in history where post-tropical flooding can be catastrophic. (Thinking Cyclone Yasi in Australia a few years ago.) Still, I can’t think of a situation where the onset of danger was as surprising as here. The middle of night on a holiday. Getting word to people in time and a place where flash flood warnings are somewhat common and thus easily ignored.

So you had the remnants of a tropical storm. Because of this, you had abundant moisture coming from that storm's source region in the Gulf. You had strong moisture transport coming northward as well with a strong low-level jet stream (a common feature in Texas located about 5,000 feet above the surface). But the jet was oriented to allow for maximum upsloping, aimed right at Hill Country. You had plentiful instability in the atmosphere as well. So, tallying all that together: A remnant tropical system, moisture levels in the 99th percentile or higher, forced upward motion due to geography and wind direction, and plentiful instability. That's a recipe for flash flooding. 

So how do you go from flash flooding to catastrophic flash flooding, because the difference is clearly enormous. When you put those parameters in concert with a weather pattern that allows for maximum efficiency of rainfall, a monsoonal pattern, and slow movement, as well as geography that allows for rapid build up of water on dry ground and riverbeds that "funnel" that through an area, that's when you flip from ordinary to potentially tragic.

Record Crest

Astonishing!

UPDATE: The Guadalupe River at Hunt flash flooding crest was updated to 37.52' an ALL TIME record crest. Even more incredible, the flow of the river went from a trickle (~1,000 CFS) to over 185,000 CFS -- the equivalent to at least TWICE the flow of Niagara Falls per second -- in just over 2 hours.

Lack of Data Kills

The data gaps and the lack of warning:

I believe this is a good example of what we talked about a couple of weeks ago. In order to consistently and accurately predict these type of events, I believe we need more weather observations, especially weather balloons. We simply do not have enough information about what is going on in the upper levels of the atmosphere to accurately predict these type of events well in advance. 

Did you know there are only 7 weather balloon stations for the entire state of Texas? And there are NO launching sites in central Texas. So for the area between Fort Worth and Midland - both cities of which routinely launch weather balloons - there was NO BALLOON DATA. We used to have weather balloons in Stephenville and San Antonio, but those were closed years ago.

Wilhoit's Law

The principle behind conservatism.

 

@mamamephistopheles #politics #leftist #lgbt #trans #feminism #socialist #nokings ♬ original sound - MamaMephistopheles