James Gelet Catches Me Looking Skeptical

Erlynda and Chris Get Married

Erlynda says she started dating Chris in 2007, but I recall he was trying to get her attention in 1999, or even earlier than that. 

I've been focused on getting them married for at least the last fifteen years. It took a while, but what’s time, after all? 

Today, they married at the Placer County Clerk Recorder’s office in Auburn, California. 

Mission accomplished.

Focus On Declassifying

But, Soft! What Light Through Yonder Window Breaks?

It is the northeast, and this silly possum is the sun.

Letter To Tampa

Hi Dwight: 

The latest forecasts are barely budging at all. The National Hurricane Center consensus indicates a direct hit on Tampa, but the NVG model keeps the eye just offshore. Still, according to the NVG model, the eye will pass close enough to Tampa that the eyewall is likely to rake the shoreline as it passes by. Storm surge will be a big problem - 5 to 10 feet: plus rain - 10 to 15 inches - and the wind, of course. There are also forecasts that the forward speed of the storm will slow as it passes by, prolonging the misery. The storm will be weakening as it passes by, but sometimes a weakening storm expands in size, which can defeat the effect of weakening. 

Rains have started in Ft. Myers. You'll start seeing rainbands shortly. 

As you indicated, I hope you are able to offer people from the shoreline shelter and have enough supplies to last for at least several days. The big problems, of course, will be electrical power and drinking water. 

My prayers are with you. Although this is memorable, it can't be much fun. 

Marc

Here Comes Ian

For the last 18 years, I've been dabbling in hurricane forecasting for some folks in Tampa, Florida. Here is my latest forecast. 

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Hi Dwight: 

The storm in the Caribbean is winding up slowly, and so another storm near the Canary Islands was able to grab the Tropical Storm Hermine label. So, the storm in the Caribbean will be called Hurricane Ian. 

Currently, forecasts for the west Florida coast look bleak. The trap has been sprung. D-Day is likely Wednesday, September 28th. Water temperatures are high enough in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to sustain a major hurricane. A large trough is forecast to drop into the American Midwest as Ian approaches, which means steering currents directing the storm into the west Florida coast are likely to be stable and strong, which in turn means the hurricane won't dance around much, or change directions at the last minute. 

The best outcome for Tampa/St. Pete would be a near-miss, as the storm passes by for a landfall farther north, leaving you basically with 60 mph sustained winds and heavy rain for at least a day. The worst outcomes are all-too-possible: a Hurricane Michael sort of annihilation of the waterfront. 

So, if you have plans for an evacuation, you might dust them off. Stock plenty of gasoline and lots of water, and electrical generators, and all the rest. Get ready to board windows. This might be the Big One. 

Marc 

[UPDATE: There remains uncertainty regarding where the storm will go. The GFS model now places landfall right along the MS/AL border, near Mobile, Alabama. The NVG model places landfall at around where the Suwannee River empties into the Gulf, which is way too close to Tampa for comfort (closest approach around midnight on Wednesday). Even if the eye doesn't come for Tampa, there might be terrible amounts of rain coming with the storm. There is discussion the storm's forward motion might slow as the storm approaches landfall, and the storm might be weakening as it approaches landfall, due to wind shear. So, the news remains not good.]