Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Unusual North Korean Bellicosity

I don't know what it means, but it can't be good. The North might finally trip up in its little game of brinksmanship and finally provoke retaliation if it's not careful:
The North Korean threat -- unusually broad and bellicose, even by North Korean standards -- came three days after the reclusive communist state was condemned by the international community, including longtime allies China and Russia, for testing a second nuclear device in violation of U.N. resolutions. Since Monday, the North has also launched five short-range missiles into the sea off its eastern coast.

The nuclear test pushed South Korea on Tuesday to join the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which was created in 2003 by President George W. Bush and includes more than 90 countries that have agreed to stop and inspect suspicious cargo ships.

For months North Korea, which is widely suspected of violating U.N. resolutions by shipping missiles to customers in East Asia and the Middle East, has said it would regard the South's membership in the anti-proliferation program as an "act of war."

As threatened, the government of Kim Jong Il rolled out a multi-pronged counter-attack in response to South Korea's decision. So far, it remains rhetorical.

North Korea said it could no longer guarantee the safety of ships from South Korea and other countries sailing in the Yellow Sea off its western border.

It added that it would not honor a North-South border in that sea, which was drawn up at the end of the Korean War in 1953. The North also said it would not respect the legal status of five islands on the South's side of the line.

Two naval clashes occurred in that area of the Yellow Sea in 1999 and 2002, resulting in the deaths of six sailors from South Korea and more than 30 from North Korea. In those skirmishes, North Korea was badly outgunned by the South's more modern weapons.

The armistice that ended the Korean War bans a naval blockade, and North Korea claimed Wednesday that the South had nullified the agreement by joining the anti-proliferation effort.

Since "the U.S. imperialists and the [South Korean President] Lee Myung-bak group of traitors have reneged" on the armistice, North Korea said it is no longer obligated to obey international law or abide by bilateral agreements.

In Seoul, Lee publicly called for "calm" and told his advisers to "respond with cool-headedness." Japanese officials issued a similar call for restraint.

...The former Soviet Union was for decades the principal economic patron of North Korea. In a telling measure of the North's increasingly diplomatic isolation, Medvedev agreed with Lee that Pyongyang had violated international law with its nuclear test. Medvedev pledged to take an "active part" in formulating a new U.N. resolution," according to the Russian government's Web site.

Russia also called the North Korean ambassador to its foreign ministry and told him Moscow has "serious concern" over this week's test, the ministry said, according to Reuters.

North Korea's closest ally, China, has also been notably critical of the nuclear test this week.

...Andrei Lankov, author of several books about North Korea and a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, said "small-scale shooting is possible and even probable, but nothing more serious than that."

"The location of mansions where Pyongyang's leaders enjoy their Hennessy cognac is well-known to the American military, and North Koreans know the precision of U.S. cruise missiles," Lankov said. "The North will steer clear of any action which might lead to a real confrontation."

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