Thursday, September 22, 2022

The Future Hurricane Hermine

People are getting worried about potential Tropical Storm Hermine. If it does head towards the Gulf of Mexico, that would be very bad, because no matter which way it goes, it'll hit someone hard. It's still unclear if it's heading to the Gulf of Mexico, though. Some models suggest it'll head to Miami instead. The danger is that it will strengthen quite slowly, and then blow up quickly only once it's too close to land to get people properly evacuated:
On Wednesday morning, the American model showed the storm as a large and possibly major hurricane. It showed it making landfall in the Florida Panhandle by September 30. The European model had it hitting the southern section of Florida a day earlier -- but as a much smaller, though nearly as intense a storm.
By Thursday morning, the model runs had shifted. The European model looks more like the American model from Wednesday, more intense and making landfall further up the west coast of Florida. It's still forecasting a faster storm, meaning it would land September 29.
The updated American model from Thursday morning shows a much slower storm. It spins in the Gulf of Mexico for days, growing in size and then making landfall in Louisiana on Sunday. 
Conditions in the Gulf are favorable for the system to strengthen, and it will do that very rapidly, Torres told CNN.

[UPDATE: And the latest model runs are rolling out now, and generally pointing to a landfall along Florida's west coast - anywhere from Naples to the Suwannee River, which brackets Tampa - about a week from now - Thursday the 29th of September. Time to start worrying about this, and checking on supplies.]

Top Gun 2022

Almost forgot to mention it, but I did see this movie several weeks ago. I liked the premise that fighter pilots might become obsolete through improved drone technology, but thought the idea of refuting the premise with an experimental flight at speeds above Mach 10 was stupid. The maximum speed for aircraft is still only about Mach 3.5 - maybe only spacecraft can go faster than that. My eyes were rolling around my head so hard that I think it disturbed people sitting near me. But once they got past that crap, I began to fall into the spirit of the movie, and just like everyone else, had fun with all the fast-moving planes.

 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Wondering About Hermine

Hurricane Fiona wrecked Puerto Rico and has passed on to wreck the Bahamas, but it's the next system that might be a problem for Florida. If it reaches tropical storm status it's likely to be called Hermine, and it's located right now east of the Leeward Islands and is likely to strengthen and head towards Florida. The big question is whether the storm will continue to strengthen as it crosses the Caribbean, or whether it will slowly fritter away and dissipate. The models are diverging on the storm's ultimate fate. The GFS model says the storm will strengthen. The NVG model said so too, but then changed its mind, and decided it will fritter away instead. So, who knows? We'll keep an eye on that.

"Come From Away" - SAFE Credit Union Performing Arts Center - September 21, 2022

I saw this excellent show tonight - the acclaimed musical about the unprecedented situation in Gander, Newfoundland on 9/11, when the skies were closed to air traffic for several days. 

In memory of Victor Saracini, with whom I shared Dr. Loganbill's freshman English class at NM Tech way back in the spring of 1975.