National Hurricane Forecasts Are Improving

Forecast track errors are improving quite a bit.
Forecast intensity errors are barely improving, however.

I thought it was interesting that the NHC isn't as impressed as I am with the U.S. Navy's NOGAPS modeling system. It's true, NOGAPS is pretty-bad with intensity predictions (in forecasts, NOGAPS often nucleates hurricanes that often turn out never to occur), but I think NOGAPS track forecasts are to die for! (Bad phraseology - NOGAPS track forecasts are not to die for. You know what I mean - great forecasts!)