Response to a Friend

A friend writes:

Well, the great experiment set in motion in the 1770's ended last night. Democracy as we know it in the United States is finished. There no longer is a two party system. The American people have willingly adopted a religious theocracy under the mantle of democracy. There is no point in trying to explain it; the powers of right wing demagoguery and religious fanaticism have persuaded the the electorate that they must give up their basic rights so that the nation may more effectively fight the ephemeral terrrorists who lurk in all corners of the world. The United States will now move on as a second rate power bankrupted by corruption and hypocrisy, and the American people will pay the cost by seeing our standard of living decline as the other nations prosper. We will be, as we deserve to be, shunned by the true democracies of the world. We are no longer the "shining beacon on the hill." When Bush reinstitutes the draft I will tell my son to leave the country. This is no longer a nation worth fighting for. As for me, I will probably never bother to vote again--it's a wasted effort in a meaningless cause.

I respond:

Grim tidings indeed!

Nevertheless, I'm not so pessimistic. I think Kerry made an excellent run, but 9/11 still clouds people's minds, and it's always very hard to unseat an incumbent. Our experiment with theocratic facism will not be as traumatic as Europe's experiment with national socialism, and there will be some good laughs along the way. There are lots of good opportunities. In Iraq, the Pottery Barn rule is still in effect, and Bush will make a hash of that for sure. The economy is in grave danger, and we will all suffer. I agree regarding your son's prospects, though. You can just feel the draft now.

And we've been here before - the 1920's. That decade ended badly, as will this decade, but it DID end. And please vote again - nothing would make Karl Rove happier than you tinkering in the garage while the world goes to hell. The trick is finding the right coalition, and the right leader, and things never looked so bleak for the Democrats than after Al Smith's defeat in 1928.

It's also important to quote Joshua Micah Marshall's reactions to today's results. They closely parallel my thoughts:

Finally, to Democrats and Kerry supporters.

Yesterday evening I heard various commentators say that Kerry's defeat would usher in a civil war among Democrats. Tucker Carlson said it would or should lead to a 'Goldwater moment' for the Democrats.

As I've noted above, I don't want to diminish the scope of what's happened. But a civil war over what exactly? Yes, some consultants will get a hard shake. And I'm certain there will be backbiting against Kerry (which I for one will very much disagree with.) But a civil war over what? The right and the left of the party were remarkably united in this cycle and managed to find points of compromise on key issues.

In some ways this would all be conceptually easier for Democrats to deal with if President Bush had managed a realignment of our politics in the post-9/11 world. But when I look at the results from last night what I see is that they are virtually identical to four years ago. Pretty much the same states going each way and a very close to even race -- though of course the president's 51% makes all the difference in the world.

As I said, if the Dems had been crushed, that would be one thing. If the American people were coalescing away from them, etc. But that's not what has happened here. In 2000 the country was divided into two (increasingly hostile) camps. And it's still exactly the same way. If anything it seems only more entrenched -- perhaps symbolically and geographically captured by the flip between New Hampshire and New Mexico from 2000.

The country is bitterly divided. And as much as anyone President Bush has divided it. But President Bush got 51% and if there's anything I've learned from watching him for the last four years-plus, it is that his team will take this as a popular mandate for an aggressive push for their agenda -- notwithstanding the profound division in the country or what has happened over the previous four years.

For the Democrats, what I fear most (and what I've privately worried about for months) is this: Energy cools after an election. That's inevitable. But organization and institutions can survive. And it is within institutions and organizational infrastructure that energy and power exist and persist.

Certainly it would have been more pleasant (and perhaps better) to nurture all the organization and infrastructure that has been built up over the last two years under a President Kerry. But my concern over the last few months has been that if Bush won, all of these groups and organizations and incipient infrastructure would simply be allowed to wither, as though it had been tried and found not to have worked.

That, as a factual judgment, I think is just plain wrong. And if that were allowed to happen it would truly be tragic. The truth is that what Democrats have begun to build over the last two years is tremendously important. It just wasn't enough, not yet.

I remember talking to Simon Rosenberg, the head of the New Dem Network, at the Democratic convention last summer. You'll remember, he and his group were profiled in the Times magazine around that time. The article, in brief, was about plans to create a Democratic-leaning counter-establishment along the lines of what Republicans did two generations ago -- with an alternative media, activist groups, organized political giving, in short a political infrastructure.

He told me he thought it would take ten years to accomplish. And I told him my one worry was that it could all be strangled in its crib if Kerry didn't win.

Well, here we are. And this is the test for people who care about this kind of politics and these sorts of values -- making sure that what has been started is not allowed to falter. This isn't 1964 or 1972 or 1980. This wans't a blow-out or a repudiation. It was close to a tie -- unfortunately, on the other guy's side. Let's not put our heads in the sand but let's also not get knocked of our game. Democrats need to think critically and seriously about why this didn't turn out 51% for Kerry or 55% for Kerry (and we'll get to those points in the future). But it would be a terrible mistake to stop thinking in terms of those ten years Simon described.

Take time to feel the desolation and disappointment. But I remain confident that time is not on the side of the kind of values and politics that President Bush represents. It took conservatives two decades to build up the institutional muscle they have today. Though I was always nervous about the result, I thought we could win this election. But it was always naive to believe that that sort of institutional heft could be put together in 24 or 36 months.

President Bush and the Republicans now control the entire national government, even more surely now than they have over the last four years. They do so on the basis of garnering the votes of 51% or 52% of the population. But they will use that power as though there were no opposition at all. That needs to be countered. Leave today for disappointment. Tomorrow, think over which of these various groups and organizations you think has made the best start toward what I've described above, go to their website, and give money or volunteer. After that, okay sure, take a few more days for disappointment, maybe a few more weeks. But this takes time. And you shouldn't lose heart. The same division in the country remains, the same stalemate. The other side just got the the ball a yard or two into our side of the field rather than the reverse. And we have to deal with the serious consequences of that. Tomorrow's the day to start.

Grim Tidings

The haze of 9/11 is still with us, but it's passing. Our day is dawning. Kerry put on a damn fine campaign, but it's hard to overpower an incumbent, even such an inept one as Bush. So....we continue! Our day will come!

Lots of good opportunities! The Pottery Barn rule is still in effect, after all. We'll see what the future holds!

Time Out Of Mind



I know it's been a long time since I lived there (1980), but nevertheless I'm surprised these politically-savvy folks think New Mexico will go for Bush (well, it HAS been a quarter of a century!)

Last Month's Jacksonville, Oregon Riot

I had heard garbled information regarding this event. Here is an eye-witness description (via anonymous E-Mail, apparently by Trish Bowcock and forwarded by Nikki Dohn):

Subject: Fwd: Silenced by the President
READ THIS ! ! and RISE UP ! ! PLEASE
SEND FAR AND WIDE. THANK YOU.
By Trish Bowcock
Oct. 16, 2004

A few weeks before my father died, he woke me in the wee hours of the morning. He needed to talk. He was worried about Attorney General John Ashcroft and the destruction of American civil liberties. I comforted my father, believing he was delusional from medications.

I was wrong.

I write this from my home in Jacksonville Oregon (population 2,226). President George W. Bush came here this week. The purpose of his visit was political. Southern Oregon has been deemed a "battle ground" area in the presidential race. John Kerry has made incredible inroads in this traditionally Republican stronghold. President Bush's campaign stop was an attempt to staunch the slide. Jacksonville is an old gold mining town. Our main street is only five blocks long, lined with restored storefronts. The sidewalks are narrow. We are a peaceful community. The prospect of an overnight presidential visit was exciting, even to me, a lifelong Democrat. My excitement turned to horror as I watched events unfold during President Bush's visit.

In the mid 1800s, when Indians invaded Jacksonville, citizens clambered upon the roof of the old library. It was the one building that would not catch fire when flaming arrows were shot. This week it was a different scene.

Police armed with high powered rifles perched upon our rooftops as the presidential motorcade approached. Helicopters flew low, overhead. A cadre of motorcycle police zoomed into town. Black SUVs followed, sandwiching several black limousines carrying the president, his wife and their entourage as they sped to the local inn where they would eat and sleep. The main street was lined with people gathered to witness the event. Many supported the president. Many did not. Some came because they were simply curious. There were men, women, young and old. The mood was somewhat festive. Supporters of John Kerry sported signs, as did supporters of George Bush. Individuals, exercising their rights of free speech began chanting. On one side of the street, shouts of "four more years" echoed in the night air. On the other side of the street, chants of "three more weeks" responded. The chants were loud and apparently could be heard by President Bush. An order was issued that the anti-Bush rhetoric be quieted. The local SWAT team leapt to action.

It happened fast. Clad in full riot gear, at least 50 officers moved in. Shouting indecipherable commands from a bullhorn, they formed a chain and bore down upon the people, only working to clear the side of the street appearing to be occupied by Kerry supporters.

People tried to get out of their way. It was very crowded. There was nowhere to move. People were being crushed. They started flowing into the streets. Pleas to the officers, asking, "where to go" fell upon deaf ears. Instead, riot police fired pellets of cayenne pepper spray into the crowd. An old man fell and couldn't get up. When a young man stopped to help, he was shot in the back with hard pepper spray balls. Children were hit with pepper spray.

Deemed "Protesters" people were shoved and herded down the street by the menacing line of armed riot police, until out of the President's ear-shot. There the "Protesters" were held at bay. Anyone vocalizing anti-Bush or pro-Kerry sentiments were prohibited from venturing forward. Loud anti-Bush chants were responded to by the commanding officer stating: "FORWARD," to which the entire line of armed police would move, lock-step, toward the "Protesters," forcing backward movement. Police officers circulated filming the crowd of "Protesters." Some were people like me, quiet middle-aged women. Some sported anti-Bush signs, peace signs, or Kerry signs. A small group of youth, clad in black with kerchiefs wrapping their heads chanted slogans. A young woman in her underwear, sporting a peace sign sang a lyrical Kumbaya.

Mixed among the "Protesters" were supporters of the President. One 19 year-old man shouted obscenities at anyone expressing dissatisfaction with the president, encouraging the police to "tazar" the "Stinking Protesters." Neither the "Protestors," nor the police harassed this vocal young man. Across the street, individuals shouting support for the president were allowed to continue. Officers monitored this group but allowed them to shout words of support or hurl derisions toward Kerry supporters, undisturbed. Honking cars filled with Bush supporters were left alone. A honking car full of Kerry supporters was stopped by police on its way out of town.

The standoff with "Protesters" continued until the President finished his dinner and was secured in his hotel cottage for the night. Only then were the riot police ordered to "mount-up," leaping upon the sideboard of a huge SUV, pulling out of town, and allowing "free speech" to resume. In small town America I witnessed true repression and intimidation by law enforcement. I saw small children suffering from the effects of being fired upon by pepper bullets. I felt legitimate fear of expressing my political opinions: a brand new feeling. Newspaper accounts state the chaos started when a violent "Protester" shoved a police officer. No one I talked to witnessed this account.

It is reputed that President Bush and his staff will not allow any opposition activity to occur within his ear or eye sight. I can confirm, that in tiny Jacksonville, Oregon, this was true. Physically violent means were taken to protect the president from verbal insults. Freedom of speech was stolen.

My father was not paranoid as he lay dying. He was expressing great insight into the dangers of our current presidential administration and its willingness to repress personal freedoms. If I could talk to my father today, I would say, "I am sorry Daddy for doubting you." And, no matter what, I will continue to exercise my individual right to freely express my opinions. Americans cannot take four more years.

Nikki Dohn

Gotterdamerung - Election Day 2004

Today's the day! I'm so excited!

Events started early. Last night, about 2 a.m., Sparky and I took our evening stroll past the polling place, the Sierra Two Center in the Curtis Park neighborhood of Sacramento (not last year's polling place, the more-appropriate "Society for the Blind" across the street). On a telephone pole outside the 100 foot exclusion zone, a big poster warned, "Be a Baby Killer!! Vote Kerry." Made me feel good to rip that down.

Got called into work early (the ungodly hour of 10 a.m.), so I didn't get to the polling place until lunchtime (2:30 p.m). Sparky was happy: not only did he get Mexican food leftovers from "Jim-Boy's", he got a bonus afternoon walk, as we strolled to the polling place.

I liked the two "fill-in-the-oval" voting forms I received (nice big print, and I need new glasses). The only danger was the possibility of not filling in BOTH sides of BOTH forms. They fed the forms into a ballot-reading machine before I left (first time I've seen that). I was voter 140 at poll B (there is also a poll A) in my precinct. Unlike 2003, Sparky remained quiet while I was out of sight, voting.

Most of the choices were fairly straightforward: yes to children's hospitals and a tax on the rich to support mental health care; no on stem cells. The incumbent school board members, part of Mayor Joe Serna's posthumous legacy to Sacramento, but lately afflicted by a pension scandal, posed a problem. I didn't want to vote for all the incumbents, but whom should I cast aside? I voted for one new candidate because she came recently from Tucson, and I once lived there. Some of the other choices were also similarly ill-informed. Buy, hey, I'm the voter and it's my perogative.

My next-door neighbor, Arthur, came up, gestured towards the door, and said he knew he had seen that dog before. I shook his hand and offered to tell him who to vote for, but he smiled, quickly retreated, and waved me off, mumbling something about having to go to work.

Then, a nice stroll back to the house, in the hazy autumn sunshine.

Wonder what mysteries tonight will hold?

OBL's Video

Talking about Halloween, Osama is back! Despite the splash of the video's appearance just before the election, I think the video will actually have very little impact on the election. The reason is that Osama apparently doesn't want to influence the election so much as he wants to take advantage of the election, for his own purposes. The video is Al Qaeda advertising.

Why is it that beer companies always advertise during the Super Bowl, when they can get much lower rates at other times? It's because a very large audience is focused on just one event! Same here! Everyone is watching the American election. That's the best time for Osama to make a public appearance! He drives the point home by his choice of language (apparently this is his first video in which he uses common vs. Koranic Arabic). Usually, Al Qaeda release videos after a major terrorist event, in order to claim credit and make vague threats. Not this time. Osama bin Laden makes no specific threats this time.

It's just advertising, and the American public, the most ad-savvy populace in history, has already taken the message's measure, and discounted it (particularly so since, as Mickey Kaus points out, the video was released to America on a Friday, when bad news generally is released, since it gets poor coverage just before the weekend: probably at the direction of the Administration). In general, advertising works through repetition, and there just isn't time available to get enough repetition in order to make a really strong impression on the American electorate.

Osama's message to the American people focused on two points - mocking Bush and girding his minions for further war:

And even more dangerous and bitter for America is that the Mujahideen recently forced Bush to resort to emergency funds to continue the fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is evidence of the success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan – with Allah's permission.

It is true that this shows that al-Qaida has gained, but on the other hand, it shows that the Bush administration has also gained, something of which anyone who looks at the size of the contracts acquired by the shady Bush administration-linked mega-corporations, like Haliburton and its kind, will be convinced. And it all shows that the real loser is...you.

It is the American people and their economy. And for the record, we had agreed with the Commander-General Muhammad Ataa, Allah have mercy on him, that all the operations should be carried out within twenty minutes, before Bush and his administration notice. It never occurred to us that the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces would abandon 50,000 of his citizens in the twin towers to face those great horrors alone, the time when they most needed him. But because it seemed to him that occupying himself by talking to the little girl about the goat and its butting was more important than occupying himself with the planes and their butting of the skyscrapers. We were given three times the period required to execute the operations – All Praise is Due to Allah.

Osama is implicitly saying the real choice isn't Bush vs. Kerry, it's the West vs. the Caliphate.

In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida. No.

The clash of civilizations continues, no matter who might win the American election.

Happy Halloween!




Fred and Julia's clever West Virginia creations!

Glorious Titan



Last night, Cassini made its first close rendezvous to Saturn's moon Titan, and what glorious pictures there are! I'm so happy those stupid environmentalists (of whom I'm proud to count myself when it's convenient) failed to get the Cassini mission scrubbed back in 1997 (because the probe uses nuclear-generated electricity - the horror! the horror!) Those profoundly stupid Chicken Littles tried to panic everybody, first by whipping fears of Challenger-like explosions when Cassini was first launched into orbit around the sun, and again months later with fears of a supposedly errant trajectory when Cassini flew past Earth again on its way out towards Saturn. Stupid fools! Ignorant chumps!

Anyway, I remember when Cassini's first pictures of Titan came back in July of this year, and how crestfallen all the planetary scientists seemed to be. They invested a great deal of their reputations in predicting the presence of large planetary hydrocarbon oceans on Titan, but the first pictures through the hazy atmosphere seemed to reveal little of such fluids, just the bright, happy, icy "continent" of Xanadu. Scientists like Carolyn Porco tried to put a game face on, but I'm sure they were thinking of the stacks of dissertations and the thousands of hours of earnest, difficult work reduced to instant rubbish. That happens sometimes when research meets reality.

Looking at these recent, better photos of Titan, though, something clearly is going on down there. Don't those look like coastlines to you? They do to me! Maybe those dark areas aren't oceans exactly, maybe a tarry sludge, but it sure looks interesting, *whatever that is*. From Cassini, it looks like the eastern Mediterranean from space, although a remarkably frigid Mediterranean it would be. No one is saying anything yet, of course, but they are probably quite happy with these pictures. Break out the hummus and grape leaves, it's a Levantine solar system!

On the JPL Web Site (via link above), they have a motion picture of what the moon looked like when Cassini approached, and it's easy to see the development of those strange semi-permanent methane clouds towards the bottom of the image. SO COOL!

One thing that worries me, though, is that Cassini's Huygens probe, scheduled to make a Christmas plunge towards Titan's surface, is currently projected to land in an area dominated by the dark *whatever that is*. I know they've designed it to float for a few minutes, but still! Maybe it would be better to nudge the probe towards a light area, and place a premium on a longer data-gathering period, and get better pictures, rather than risk losing the probe in *whatever that is*? What's so bad about Xanadu at Christmas? Olivia Newton-John's "Kira" would certainly agree!

Anyway, we have our own solar system spectacle tonight - a lunar eclipse! Go outside quick and marvel at the wonder and glory of it ALL!

Dear George: Letters to the President

Before I forget, Interact Theater Company has two more performances of "Dear George: Letters to the President", a letter-reading project being carried out nationwide in this last week before the election. Sacramento performances, at the Eagle Theater in Old Sacramento, are Thursday October 28th at 8 p.m., and Saturday October 30th at 4 p.m. Go see it!

Al Qa Qaa

Has there ever been a better name for a scandal? In any event, it's shameful the way Matt Drudge and other Administration stooges have been trying to excuse the Bush Administration for its lack of care. Of course U.S. troops didn't find explosives at Al Qa Qaa when they first reached it, the day after Baghdad fell. The job of those troops was to rest and then proceed immediately to Baghdad, and not engage in an inventory check. It's pretty easy to establish that the explosives (and the auxiliary equipment) was removed after the U.S. took over Iraq. The U.S. troops, suffering from their chronic manpower shortage, were not able to man a watch on the place. 'Ali Baba' made off with the explosives, to everybody's detriment.

My faith-based initiative: I pray for good results on Election Day!

The New Theater Delay

At the all-hands DMTC meeting on Sunday, we wrestled about what to do regarding the delay in building DMTC's New Theater. Harrison Construction, in a burst of prudence, wants to be assured at least half ($450,000) of the necessary additional money ($900,000) will be available before finishing the theater. The New Theater is roughly 40-50% complete now, and could be completed in about a month if half the total money were available. If Bank of America had followed through on naming rights, we'd be close to that goal now, but now we have to be innovative.

One trouble is deciding exactly how optimistic to be. Pessimism and panic never helps under these circumstances, of course, but neither does the false optimism we've comforted ourselves with so far. We've been reaching for euphemism too (calling it a 'construction delay,' when it's actually a 'money delay'), but as became clear at the meeting, euphemism only works when everybody is on the same page, and has the same facts available to them. Euphemism is OK for the Board and close friends, but to outsiders it sounds like evasion. We must be careful.

We'll have to explore financing options. As the Treasurer, I'm pretty confident we have community resources and goodwill from which to draw, but we can't delay too many months, or else the extra expenses associated with new theater construction, plus the inability to cut off old expenses, will be become burdensome to the company. Sounds like its time for someone to:

• get an inheritance;
• win a jackpot; or,
• release a popular hip-hop video (maybe the YPT kids?)

Dr. Strangelove, "On Thermonuclear War," the CIA, and Nostalgia

Fred Kaplan wrote an article in the October 10th NY Times (Truth Stranger than 'Strangelove') that emphasized how closely Stanley Kubrick's 1964 movie "Dr. Strangelove" adhered to government thinking, convention, and personalities in the early 60's. According to the article, Daniel Ellsberg (a foremer RAND analyst) recently recalled that he turned to a colleague after seeing the dark comedy and said, "That was a documentary!"

The character of Dr. Strangelove supposedly represented the RAND Corporation's Dr. Herman Kahn, who wrote the disturbing insider classic "On Thermonuclear War," a huge book which I read carefully when I was 13-years-old, specifically because it was so vociferously denounced by liberals of all sorts at the time.

Kahn's sin was to discuss nuclear war in prosaic terms, to imagine how it could be survived, and how victory could be achieved even after millions die: dangerous thoughts with such potent weapons!

When I interviewed for a position with the CIA in 1987, I was unprepared for my emotional reaction. I wondered whether I would be mad, in a proper liberal way, at the secretive power of the company, or bedazzled by the cutting-edge technology, but none of that happened. Instead, I was overwhelmed with wave after wave of nostalgia. All the things that would make my teenage self swoon with delight were at last nearly within reach. Details of the Soviet war machine, and ours. Rockets and bombs. Telecommunications and satellites. Code speak and indecipherable runes. And yet that was all my old, teenage self.

I remember listening in the darkness to a lone frog croaking in a tiny, drought-stricken rivulet that flowed past a car dealership in Tyson's Corners, Virginia, as I struggled after the interview with the decision whether or not to join the company. I decided that Gorbachev's recent overtures to the U.S. probably spoke poorly for the CIA's immediate future. The CIA would become less, not more, influential with time, as detente waxed and as we all learned to get along.

I didn't know the half of it! The unanticipated collapse of the Soviet Union (unanticipated by most, that is, except by a few imaginative Soviet dissidents) practically derailed the agency. The current vicious policy struggles with the Pentagon threaten to make the CIA irrelevant: the Pentagon is bigger and badder than ever today. Cheney and Wolfowitz and Perle and Rumsfeld and Cambone encroach on the agency's power, and the CIA is forced into drastic black-bag jobs to expose Pentagon-supported traitors like Ahmed Chalabi. In a way, I'm glad I didn't join after all. Nostalgia doesn't extend all the way back to Roman Empire-like backstabbing and degeneration ('Sutsugua' indeed!)

Still, I can remember my first reaction as a ten-year-old to "Dr. Strangelove." As I recall, it was the Saturday Night Movie on NBC television in 1966, and I tuned in late. I gathered that it was a drama, in the manner of the tragic nuclear-war movie "Fail Safe," which had aired a few weeks prior, but I slowly noticed an unwanted, disturbing satirical edge. I remember protesting, "Wait! This isn't funny! What do they think they are doing? 'There won't be any fighting in the War Room': don't they realize some people will laugh at that?"

And yet it got funnier and funnier, and even I started chuckling after a while (and is that Peter Sellers? I thought the other guy was Peter Sellers?)

This is not, I repeat NOT, funny! Nostalgic, maybe. But NOT funny!

Prayer

What a waste of federal scientific funding!

Electoral Forecasts - the Blogosphere Speaks

(from Fafblog)

Earlier I was talkin with swing statologist Dr. Brian Brainologist about the swing state of Iowa. You can tell he's an expert on accounta his real plush chair in his real leathery library!"

Whoever wins Iowa will win this election, period," says Brian Brainologist. "Without a doubt." But surely Dr. Brainologist is exaggeratin because there is also Florida an Pennsylvania an Michigan an Colorado an - "No, Fafnir, those states won't matter," says Dr. Brainologist. "It will all come down to Iowa. All of it. All of it, Iowa." Well, that is an important point I suppose an Dr. Brainologist does have a very large brain so - "NOTHING MATTERS BUT IOWA. ALL IOWA. ALL. IOWA. ALLLLLLL."

Electoral Forecasts, Cheap

John:
OK, here are the numbers you have been waiting for. My call on the presidential race is, for the first time, moving to the right of the decimal point. The final popular vote will be:

Kerry 49.8%
Bush 49.2%

This will be valid whether or not Bush attempts a pre-election surprise. In all likelihood bin Laden has been dead for some time and al Zarqawi will not be taken alive (besides, he doesn't have the same level of significance of bin Laden). The surrender of insurgents in Fallujah could happen but again without effect. I fully expect al Qaida or offshoot groups to attempt a major terrorist attack in the days before the election but it is highly unlikely to be on American soil. A bombing of an embassy in a third world country or an anti-aircraft missile attack on a civilian airliner, again in a third world country, would be the most probable scenario. But an airliner with a few Americans or Israelis going down in, say, Egypt would not be a big event for most Americans (how much attention have people paid to the terrorist attacks last week on Israeli tourists in Egypt?).

So there is my prediction. Have the champagne ready on election night, though with the closeness of the race it may not be decided immediately (Bush is mobilizing forces to make sure republicans will use any trick necessary to win in close states). But in spite of that effort I remain confident of a Kerry victory.

Marc:
Good shot! I tend to be a bit more optimistic. I say Kerry 50%; Bush 48%; Nader, Badnarik and others 2%. Kerry gets 325 electoral votes (winning NM, NV, MO, OH, FL, WI, MN, ME and WV), and Bush gets 213 electoral votes (winning IA, VA, NC and all of CO). Very similar to your prediction: a very close race, but Kerry gets the turnout edge.

Myself, I don't think Al Qaeda is interested in particular in a pre-election surprise. They don't need any excuse to continue to do the things they do. Their eyes are on the bigger prize: a clash of civilizations! I doubt they have the same sensation of Gotterdamerung we have, with this particular election. They are looking for Crusaders, man!

Actually, I've noticed a pre-election calm settling in. Very little newsworthy is happening. That is probably a bad sign of things to come. Karl Rove must be busy.

Is This What Gets Me To Finally Visit Europe?

Sure looks tempting. Tickets look awfully cheap too, but there is the air fare and hotel to worry about.....

Kylie will play her biggest ever tour next year to follow the release of her first comprehensive greatest hits package “Ultimate Kylie”, which is released this year on Nov 22. The European leg of the tour, entitled "Kylie Showgirl; the Greatest Hits tour" will open in Scotland in March, will then move to continental Europe, and return to the UK in April, ending in London at Earls Court in May.

TICKETS WILL GO ON SALE ON MONDAY OCT 18TH.

Tickets are £37.50 for all dates. £32.50 tickets will also be available for the Earls Court show. They are limited to 6 per person.

STAY TUNED FOR NEWS OF IRISH DATES
Kylie will play the following UK dates:

MARCH 19 GLASGOW SECC (0870 040 4000)

APRIL 19 BIRMINGHAM NEC (0870 909 4133)

APRIL 23 MANCHESTER EVENING NEWS ARENA (0870 190 8000)

MAY 2 LONDON, EARLS COURT (0870 160 8989)

24 HOUR TICKET HOTLINE 0870 735 5000

www.bookingsdirect.com(agency and credit card bookings are subject to booking fee) Stay tuned to Kylie.com for the all the latest tour news!

'Twas the night before Frances

Florida humor, courtesy of Dwight in Tampa:

'Twas the night before Frances
When all through the state
Not a gas pump was pumping
Not a store open late

All the plywood was hung
On the windows with care
Knowing that a hurricane
Soon would be there

The children were ready
With flashlights in hand
While bands from the hurricane
Covered over the land

And mamma with her Mag-Lite
And I in my cap
Had just filled the bath tub
For flushing our crap

When out on the lawn
There arose such a clatter
I sprang from the closet
To see what was the matter

The trees on the fence
And the neighbor's roof torn
Gave the fear of us dying
In this terrible storm

With a little wind gust
So lively and quick
I remembered quite clearly
Our walls weren't brick

More rapid than eagles
Her courses they came
And she whistled, and wafted
And surged all the same

Off shingles! Off sidings!
Off rooftops! Off power!
Down trees! Down fences!
Down trailers! Down towers!

In the center of Florida
She continued to maul
Screaming Blow Away!
Blow Away! Blow Away All!

As wind ripped and tossed
The debris through the sky
I peeked out the shutters
At cars floating by

So go to the safe-room
My family did do
With a portable radio
And batteries too

And then, in a twinkling
I heard on the set
The end was not coming
For a few hours yet!

As I calmed down the kids
And was turning around
Through the window it came
With a huge crashing sound

A tree branch it was
All covered in soot
The wind blew it smack-dab
On top of my foot

A bundle of twigs
Now lay in a stack
And my living room looks
Like it was under attack

The wind - how it howled!
The storm - very scary!
Myself and the family
Were all too unwary

The dangers of hurricanes
Are serious, you know
They are taken for granted
As Frances did show

With the winds dying down
And the danger beneath
I noticed my tool shed
Was missing its sheath

So I grabbed my last tarp
And nailed it on down
Then I got in my car
And I headed to town

The traffic was awful
And stores had no ice
My five gallon cooler
Would have to suffice

Generators were scarce
Not one left in town
There were trees on the roads
And power lines down

FEMA was ready
With people to work
Electrical companies
Came in from New York

And in the midst of
This peculiar routine
Another storm emerged
Named Hurricane Jeanne

I sprang to the car
And gave my family a whistle
Then away we all went
Like a Tomahawk missile

You could hear us exclaim
As we drove out of sight
"The hell with this place,
Vermont seems just right!"

(author unknown)

Cave Art

It's nice to see the canvas of history, even before it is filled. Backstage at the Eagle Theater in Old Sacramento, and in the back stairwell, like Cro Magnon shamans in a Holocene cavern, musical theater afficionados have scrawled their signatures and graffiti everywhere over the years. The signatures are fun to read, and many of them were made by acquaintances and friends (e.g. Dena Lozano, Kathleen Reilley, Kris David, Kathy Davi, etc.) The signatures seem to date from 1992 forwards, with many from 1999-2000: Runaway Stage's last season there. I like the pair: "Dignity, Always Dignity," (director John Lee) and "Dance Belts, Always Dance Belts," (Pedro the Sparrow).

DMTC will have its Kid's Wall, Lobby Waterfall, and Name-A-Seats, but I wonder if there will also be a less-formal commemorative wall somewhere, for a new generation of musical theater shamans?

Oblivious

This afternoon, I deposited DMTC's weekend take at Bank of America, and crossed the street to eat lunch at the Alhambra & K St. 'Del Taco.' There was no line at the counter, so I was able to quickly order and then take a seat at a small table in the dining area. Even before I could unfold and start reading today's Wall Street Journal, however, the order was ready. So fast! Apparently the fast food crew had been idle: the rainy afternoon must have scared off the normal, fairly scruffy 'Del Taco' clientele.

I picked up my order, sat down, started reading and eating, and fell into my usual, bovine lunchtime oblivion, caught up in the latest Wall St. insurance scandal, John Kerry's understanding of terrorism, and half a dozen other pertinent issues of the day. Two young African-Americans, a man and a woman, stood near my table. The man suddenly announced: "Paramedics are here!"

I looked up, and EMTs were swarming into the restaurant. A fire truck and an ambulance had materialized in the parking lot, where seconds before there had been none. The woman asked the man, "Did you call 911?" The man nodded yes, and she put her hand up over her mouth, as if to suppress laughter - maybe absurd laughter about the size of the official response??? Meanwhile, I'm sitting there with a stupid smile on my face, suddenly distracted from the pressing issue of inadequate help for the developmentally-disabled in poor counties in Ohio, and thinking: "What the HELL is going on?"

I looked left, and clearly visible just fifteen feet from my table, a man, perhaps homeless, lay on the floor. He had apparently been there the entire time, in some kind of acute distress, but in my food and information frenzy, I had somehow utterly failed to notice him.

The paramedics propped up the man, quizzed him, and ultimately decided to take him to the hospital. I guess it wasn't just the weather that had spooked the clientele, but I had been grateful for the short line at the counter, and never considered other possibilities.

I'm still startled about how little attention I had paid to my immediate surroundings. How many other things happen all the time, right under my nose, that I somehow completely miss? I feel like a grazing dinosaur in a tropical Cretaceous world, not noticing the approaching asteroid, even as it obscures the sun and scatters the birds....

Strange News Items

Bobby Fischer both boasts, and worries, about his manhood.
Beware of giving your money to polka band leaders.
The way Bush and Company mislead and lie.