DMTC YPT "A Christmas Carol" - Part 2

DMTC YPT "A Christmas Carol" - Part 1

Making Air Pollution History Here In Northern California

Here is a plot of November particulate concentration (PM 2.5 - particulate matter below 2.5 microns in size) at Sacramento's T Street station.

The crisis in Northern California resulting from the Camp Fire has been getting worse with time, peaking on Thursday at levels 7.5 times the health standard of 35 micrograms per meter cubed (ug/m3). The crisis likely won't abate until near Thanksgiving, when a storm system might provide some relief. It generally takes fire fighters a month to put out these large fires, although rain from the storm might hasten that process.

The Northern California crisis is already among the worst episodes of air pollution in American history. Levels aren't quite as high as the great Chinese smog episodes of 2013, but will last longer than those episodes, and may hurt lots of people.

North Dakota Voter Suppression Backfires

All those voter suppression efforts in North Dakota led the Native communities there to react spectacularly, in some cases, to double turnout over previous midterms, and flipping three red seats blue in the state legislature:

...galvanized by anger over the state’s voter ID law and aided by the intensive efforts of tribal leaders and advocacy groups, [Native Americans] turned out for last week’s election in numbers unprecedented even for a presidential election, much less a midterm.

In Sioux County, where the Standing Rock Indian Reservation is, turnout was up 105 percent from the last midterm elections in 2014 and 17 percent from the 2016 presidential election, according to data from the North Dakota secretary of state’s office. In Rolette County, home to the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, it was up 62 percent from 2014 and 33 percent from 2016. In Benson County, home to the Spirit Lake Nation, it was up 52 percent from 2014 and 10 percent from 2016.

Rain's Coming

Some Elementary Dispersion Modeling Regarding The Camp Fire

In regards to the Camp Fire, I've been playing with some bonehead air quality dispersion modeling, using the 2002 version of the ISCST3 model. The useful property about long-distance dispersion is that it tends to be very well-behaved, following Taylor's Law (which he came up with circa 1940). In 2011, I used this model to estimate impacts in California from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, and it worked pretty well. If it works for Fukushima, it should also work for northern California.

I make some dubious assumptions - area source 0.5 km on a side, no plume rise, some fanning over a 24-hr period, 300 meter mixing height - but like I say the modeling should still be fairly robust.

The modeling shows weaknesses - overestimates close in to the source, and on the west side of the Central Valley - plus local effects are evident. Still, if I key the results to air quality in Salinas, it's not too bad. The modeling suggests air quality impacts very close to Paradise were very hazardous. And ALL these impacts are well above the national health standard of 35 micrograms per meter cubed (ug/m3) for a 24-hour period. Worse, we are having back-to-back days of bad air quality, which is very hard on sensitive populations.

"Rocky Horror Picture Show" - Green Valley Theater Company

Almost forgot - Green Valley Theater Company's pirate-themed 2018 presentation of "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" at the 24th Street Theater on opening night, October 19, 2018.

Chris Cook (Producer).

Sam Dedal (Columbia).

Camp Fire 11/12/18