Some Elementary Dispersion Modeling Regarding The Camp Fire

In regards to the Camp Fire, I've been playing with some bonehead air quality dispersion modeling, using the 2002 version of the ISCST3 model. The useful property about long-distance dispersion is that it tends to be very well-behaved, following Taylor's Law (which he came up with circa 1940). In 2011, I used this model to estimate impacts in California from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident, and it worked pretty well. If it works for Fukushima, it should also work for northern California.

I make some dubious assumptions - area source 0.5 km on a side, no plume rise, some fanning over a 24-hr period, 300 meter mixing height - but like I say the modeling should still be fairly robust.

The modeling shows weaknesses - overestimates close in to the source, and on the west side of the Central Valley - plus local effects are evident. Still, if I key the results to air quality in Salinas, it's not too bad. The modeling suggests air quality impacts very close to Paradise were very hazardous. And ALL these impacts are well above the national health standard of 35 micrograms per meter cubed (ug/m3) for a 24-hour period. Worse, we are having back-to-back days of bad air quality, which is very hard on sensitive populations.