Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket make gambling really easy to do online, but the bets can be opaque, poorly-defined, and they are sometimes laughably easy to manipulate.
I particularly liked that fellow who recently brought a hair dryer to Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, in order to apply heat on a weather-service thermometer recording the temperature there, so he could win a bet.
In addition, once money changes hands, there's no way to reverse judgements even if the game is later found to be fraudulent. The hair-dryer guy skated because there's no law for this situation. Money changed hands: he won, it's over!
The rules matter in gambling. Lax rules, lax definitions, and an international market subject to no one's law means you'll get fraud everywhere.
You get better treatment in a real casino in the event of error. You actually get your money back!
Do you think you'll ever get your money back from that lousy bet you placed on Facebook? Dream on!
Just another reason why we need to back away from Meta, and think about going elsewhere for social media. Save the gambling for real casinos, which are more honest and subject to regulation:
As prediction markets surge in popularity, CEO Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly calling for his company to consider partnering with Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the biggest platforms, while he develops a similar in-house app, Arena. According to a Friday report by the New York Times, Zuckerberg wants to design Arena to specifically target 18 to 34-year-olds.
Meta also hopes to implement parts of Arena into Facebook and its messaging app, Messenger, attaching betting options to group chats, news feeds, and videos.
“We believe that prediction markets are one of the more interesting new content types,” Ime Archibong, a senior Meta official leading Arena’s development, reportedly said in an internal company post last month. “The social conversation is the payoff as people aim to show off how good they are at predicting things to their friends.”
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