Elsa Kicked My Forecasting Ass

Every hurricane season since Hurricane Ivan in 2004, I've been providing hurricane path forecasts to former coworkers Dwight and Linda Mitchell, who retired to a place north of Tampa, FL. 

Having my commentary was helpful to Dwight, since he was part of a management team for senior citizen housing, and would be a responsible party should it be necessary to evacuate people in advance of a hurricane. 

My advice was particularly valuable in the early days. There were once delays as important news bubbled through the Weather Service bureaucracy, so sometimes a forecasted hurricane jog would take up to sixteen hours before the National Hurricane Center (NHC) officially reported it. Dwight could not endure any delays in information. He had to KNOW, and KNOW NOW, if there was anything of importance coming his way. 

Over the last two decades, hurricane path forecasting has improved significantly. Delays are much reduced these days, and the official NHC path forecasts are much better than they once were. 

Tropical Storm Elsa was a NHC textbook case. It behaved exactly as forecast. I tried playing a contrarian role. My feeble contrarian forecasts failed at every turn. 

It's been a good couple of decades. All hail, the all-conquering NHC!