Delta Variant is a Game Changer

Our slow slide into a science fiction dystopian nightmare has accelerated. Masking has already been a political flashpoint. Now, masking will become even more divisive. Time to put the anti-maskers to the sword:

Until Friday morning, July 30, 2021, herd immunity was the goal we were all working towards. Remember when President Biden set his goal of vaccinating 70 percent of the population by July 4?

...Most experts believed that it would take vaccinating somewhere between 70 and 90 percent of Americans for the country to reach something resembling herd immunity. The fact that COVID is a global pandemic, with many countries in the developing world lacking widespread vaccine distribution, argued against the kind of herd immunity eventually reached against diseases like polio. Still, the goal seemed within reach if enough of us could be convinced to get vaccinated. At that point, it was hoped, normal life in this country could resume, with people eating in restaurants, going to the movies, attending concerts, singing in church choirs, playing sports and attending school uninhibited by requirements to social distance or keep wearing masks.

On Friday, that hope went out the door. The CDC internal health document obtained by the Post and the Times urges federal health officials to "acknowledge the war has changed."

...Herd immunity has to do with transmissibility. A disease goes away when enough people become immune to the infectious agent such that it can no longer be transmitted among a population. The CDC on Friday essentially admitted that being vaccinated against COVID doesn't make you immune. You can still contract the disease, especially the delta variant, and having become infected, you can still transmit the disease to others whether you have symptoms or not.

...When the COVID vaccines are injected, the antibodies produced by the human immune system appear mostly in the blood. "Some antibodies may make their way into the nose, the main port of entry for the virus, but not enough to block it," the Times reported Friday. "The Delta variant seems to flourish in the nose, and its abundance may explain why more people than scientists expected are experiencing break-through infections and cold-like symptoms."

Vaccinated people can spread the virus almost as easily as unvaccinated people because the so-called "viral loads" in their noses and upper respiratory tracts can be nearly as strong as in unvaccinated people. When vaccinated people become infected, the virus attempts to travel from the nose and throat into the lungs. This is where the antibodies built up by the vaccines go to work, preventing a severe enough infection to need hospitalization.

"The vaccines — they're beautiful, they work, they're amazing," Dr. Frances Lund, a viral immunologist at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, told the Times. "But they're not going to give you that local immunity." Vaccinated people will be contagious for a much shorter time, Dr. Lund told the Times. "But that doesn't mean that in those first couple of days, when they're infected, they can't transmit it to somebody else."

...This is why the CDC's findings this week are a game-changer. It's also why the CDC has released new guidelines suggesting a return to mask-wearing, even among vaccinated people, in areas of the country that are experiencing an uptick in breakouts of the disease. Getting the vaccine doesn't keep you from getting the disease, and it doesn't keep you from spreading it.

...I think the other thing the CDC findings published on Friday tell us is that the unvaccinated population is no longer "the problem." They are part of the problem, because they can of course catch the disease and spread it, but, as we just learned, so can those of us who are vaccinated. We may be returning to the point where "the problem," if there is one, is more about people who refuse to adhere to mask mandates, or those politicians who, faced with outbreaks of the disease, refuse to impose them.

If there is an enemy in the war against COVID it's the virus itself, which is far more virulent than we knew. It is mutating, and mutations like the delta variant are making the disease much worse than it was in the beginning. I think we will have to assume that there will be new mutations, new variants, meaning this disease is going to be with us in one form or another for years – maybe forever, like the seasonal flu and the common cold.