Irma's Path

This morning's forecasts shift the Hurricane Irma's path a bit farther west. The NVG modeled path brackets Tampa on the west, and the GFS modeled path brackets Tampa on the east. The Tampa Catastrophe Scenario I illustrated earlier is in play.

It's hard to believe the short wave fired off by the low over the Dakotas is enough of a catalyst to have such a dramatic effect on the hurricane's path. The short wave is barely visible on satellite pictures right now, with a few high clouds racing south near the Kansas/Oklahoma border, but the models indicate when the clouds reach Irma, they will couple with the trough over the East Coast and turn the storm north.

My hope is that the modeled path keeps inching west. But we don't know for sure.