The NVG model suggests Harvey's storm circulation should shift south. Instead, the circulation is shifting ever so slowly east. Either direction is plausible, but the fact the model diverges from reality suggests the model is off track. Either the model initialization has small errors in it, or the model has other unaddressed problems.
In any event, Harvey is going through a complicated decay process. Rains have completely collapsed on the storm's west side as dry continental air is introduced into the storm.
Nevertheless, Harvey's decay may eventually lead to a kind of rejuvenation. As the circulation slows down the circulation expands, and seaward rain bands once again have access to water-vapor-laden air from the Gulf. Indeed the rain bands forming just offshore of Matagorda Island right now look pretty potent. One rain band is feeding directly into Houston, where it's raining cats and dogs right now. Even if the storm doesn't completely revive, it might have enough strength to continue to push rains into southeast Texas.
And that's what's likely to happen, at least for the next 12 hours. The storm will continue drifting east tonight and tomorrow and heavy rains will continue falling to the east of Harvey's center, particularly in the Houston area.
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