Water Shortages Already Starting

It isn't even February yet:

The state department of health has identified 17 communities across the state that are running out of water and need help to keep their residents supplied with healthy and available water. It's what many fear may be just the tip of the iceberg as California's drought gets worse.

Four of the communities are in the Sacramento area, including the Whispering Pines Apartments in Mariposa County, the Jackson Valley irrigation district in Amador County, Washington Ridge Conservation Camp in Nevada County and a tiny group of cottages known as Ophir Gardens in Placer County near Auburn.

Ophir Gardens began running out of water late last year.

"The difficulty that they're facing is low yield from their single well," said Brent Smith, with the Placer County Water Agency.

Smith said the well is only able to provide one gallon of water a minute.

The parks owner has begun bringing water in by truck, an expensive process that has so far kept the 16 small cottages from running dry.

Residents like Rita Bainbridge are dreading what may happen if the system runs completely out of water.

"Cutting back on showers and dishes and stuff. And I won't like that...at all," said Rita Bainbridge, who has lived at Ophir Gardens for about nine months.

National Review Death Watch

There's a chance climatologist Michael Mann's defamation lawsuit against the National Review might succeed in bankrupting the magazine. Scientists in general, and climatologists in particular, are ill-equipped to handle brazen slander; a world where anything goes. Here's hoping!:

Scientist Michael Mann is suing the Review over statements made by Canadian right-wing polemicist and occasional radio stand-in for Rush Limbaugh, Mark Steyn. Steyn was writing on the topic of climate change when he accused Mann of falsifying data and perpetuating intellectual fraud through his research.

Steyn went on to quote paid anti-climate science operative Rand Simberg — an employee of the right-wing think tank the Competitive Enterprise Institute — who compared Mann to Penn State’s convicted child molester Jerry Sandusky.

Mann, Simberg said, is “the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data.”

Strangely Enough, The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Seems To Correlate Better With Precipitation In Albuquerque Than San Francisco

Friend Jerry notes:

I see that some people are blaming the harsh winter in the eastern US on the PDO.

But he's skeptical:

Preliminary analysis: correlation between subzero days in South Bend, Indiana vs December-January-February PDO index = 0.08. Correlation with average PDO index for previous year = 0.07.

ABQ Annual Precipitation vs. Annual avg. PDO * 10, 1949-2013. R-squared = 0.20. (To my surprise, according to National Weather Service (NWS), ABQ precepitation was nearly normal last year - 9.32 inches. According to NWS:

"This was the 6th year in a row with below normal precipitation, although 2013 was only 0.13 inches below the official 30 year normal of 9.45 inches (1981-2010). The long term annual normal precipitation (1892 to current) is 8.56 inches. 2013 was the 76th driest (46th wettest) on record since 1892."

Similarly, San Francisco Precipitation vs. Annual Avg. PDO*10, 1960-2009. R-squared = 0.04 (corrected for July 1 - June 30 water year - labeled in end year).

Jerry describes his efforts:

I also tried correlating the average FALL PDO index with the occurrence of subzero temps in South Bend, to see if there was any PREDICTIVE value in the index. Result: Rsq = .00001. I'm concluding that the PDO index is about as useful for forecasting as the Farmer's Almanac.

I'm not quite so ready to throw the PDO away:

I'm intrigued about its usefulness for Southwestern drought. Some connections work - Eastern Australia's precipitation swing from 2006 - 2011 vs. ENSO, for example.

Jerry warns about the seductions of ENSO:

I think that the usefulness of the ENSO index is what has misled some people into thinking that the forecasting problem can be reduced to the calculation of indices.

When I saw "some people", I include a local TV weathercaster. He attributes the harshness of this winter to the fact that the PDO is in its negative phase, conveniently forgetting that the previous two winters, during which the PDO index as also negative, were mild, with NO subzero temperatures at all.

Yes, consistency is a silly thing!

"Breaking Bad" Locations - Incremental Update

Every few of months, I do an incremental update to my "Breaking Bad" Locations Web Pages. I've finished another incremental update today to all my Locations posts. (Much of the update involves sneaking over to Shayne's and Marius' Web Sites and quietly copying a few of the spectacular art images there.)

The biggest changes were to the final post. What I was doing during the run of "Breaking Bad" was collecting and posting elsewhere on my blog the best of "Breaking Bad" reviews, videos, photos that I was running into on the fly. I take that blog collection and drop them onto this Web Page. In the event you missed them the first time around, or just like it all in one place.

Infrequent Posting As Of Late

I'm preparing an incremental update to my Breaking Bad posts.

The Smell Of Approaching Rain

It's a real thing:

There's a name popularly ascribed to this range of post-precipitation scents: petrichor. Petrichor was first described in 1964 by mineralogists Isabel Joy Bear and R. G. Thomas of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. As they defined it, it occurs when airborne molecules from decomposing plant or animal matter become attached to mineral or clay surfaces. During a dry spell, these molecules chemically recombine with other elements on a rock's surface. Then when the rains came, the redolent combination of fatty acids, alcohols and hydrocarbons is released.

Australian Fire Tornado

Steve sends this amazing video of a whirlwind on FIRE!

SNL "Her" Parody Trailer, "Me"

Pope Francis Is The Catholic Church's Obama

Like that's a bad thing:

Pope Francis is undergoing a popularity surge comparable to the way Barack Obama was greeted by the world in 2008. And just as President Obama has been a disappointment for America, Pope Francis will prove a disaster for the Catholic Church.

...Much is being made of his ‘compassion’ and ‘humility,’ but kissing babies and hugging the sick is nothing new. Every pope in recent memory has done the same, yet only now are the media paying attention. Benedict XVI and John Paul II refused to kowtow to the liberal agenda, and so such displays of tenderness were under-covered.

Francis is beating a retreat for the Catholic Church, and making sure its controversial doctrines are whispered, not yelled – no wonder the New York Times is in love.

...Francis not only panders to enemies and professional grievance mongers, but also attacks his allies. Just as Obama snubs Britain and Israel, Pope Francis swipes at practicing Catholics.

So not only has he insulted, and severely damaged the work of, pro-life and pro-marriage groups with his comments, he has also gone on the attack, dismissing Catholics who attend the older rites in Latin as ‘ideologizing’ and being guilty of ‘exploitation.’ Apparently “Who am I to judge?” doesn’t apply here.

...Apart from the fact that there is no major nation practicing unfettered capitalism (like Obama, Francis loves attacking straw men) there is more real tyranny in socialist cesspools like Francis’ home of Argentina than in places where capitalism is predominant.

In the document he rejects the free market and calls for governments to overhaul financial systems so they attack inequality. In doing so he shows himself painfully misguided on economics, failing to see that free markets have consistently lifted the poor out of poverty, while socialism merely entrenches them in it, or kills them outright.

List Of Rainy Season Dry Spells

The National Weather Service in Sacramento compiled a handy list of the worst dry spells during rainy seasons ever recorded since records started in the 1870's. The current spell will likely last until next Thursday, making it, at 53 days, far and away the worst of these dry spells:

(will likely reach 53 days): Dec. 8, 2013-current
44 days: Nov. 15-Dec. 28, 1976
42: Jan. 17-Feb. 27, 1899
41: Dec. 18, 1962-Jan. 27, 1963
38: Nov. 4-Dec. 11, 1959
38: Nov. 8-Dec. 15, 1940
38: Feb. 15-March 24, 1883
36: Nov. 26-Dec. 31, 1989
36: Dec. 18, 1960-Jan. 22, 1961
36: Nov. 15-Dec. 20, 1958
34: Dec. 16, 2011-Jan. 18, 2012
34: Dec. 5, 1956-Jan. 7, 1957

People Forget So Fast!

Looking Longingly At The Pop Culture Conference In Albuquerque In February

Nick and Lori are hosting, Miguel is presenting, Jennie is coming - maybe Kirika too. Maybe a reunion opportunity....

This Is What Catastrophe Looks Like

NAM, The Rebel

Interestingly, the NAM model is beginning to rebel against the model consensus, and suggesting rain in a week, on next Thursday. I like the NAM model – better than GFS – so here’s hoping it’s right!

Meanwhile, Fairbanks, AK, has been shut down by freezing rain, which in January, is utterly absurd

"Her"

Interesting movie! Falling in love with an operating system! Both Jetta and Joe the Plumber liked it (Jetta loves it; Joe's heartbroken and left afterwards to commiserate with some spirits).

Afterwards, I started asking Siri numerous questions, including, "Do You Love Me?" She parried the question well.

Cast featured Joaquin Phoenix as Theodore Twombly (a professional writer of faux-personal letters), Rooney Mara as his estranged wife Catherine, Scarlett Johansson as Samantha, the OS voice, Amy Adams as neighbor Amy, plus Olivia Wilde as the Blind Date, Portia Doubleday as the Surrogate Date Isabella, with contributions from Bill Hader, Kristen Wiig, Director Spike Jonze, and others. The scene is near-future Los Angeles, with a marked California vibe. Music by the ever-versatile Arcade Fire!

Speaking Of Ekaterina Krysanova....

I was wondering why I found the Bolshoi Ballet's Ekaterina Krysanova so attractive, and then I realized she looks a lot like Kylie Minogue. Hmmmm. I wonder if I have subconscious templates of what the Perfect Woman looks like. There must be a blonde template there somewhere in my head, but as far as brunette template goes, Ekaterina will do....

"Le Corsaire" - Bolshoi Ballet - Tower Theater - Pathé Cinema

Le Jardin Animé, "Le Corsaire".

Six months ago, Sally urged me to go see "La Sylphide" as performed by the Bolshoi Ballet, and presented at the Tower Theater by Pathé Cinema. Pathé distributes movies of very recent ballet performances, in the manner that live opera is sometimes shown in local cinemas. The number of showings is small (sometimes just one), and the entrance price considerably-higher than for most movies, but for the discerning viewer, it's the next-best thing to being in Moscow to watch the performance itself. Sadly, the Bunhead crowd can't seem to afford it, or maybe they haven't heard about it, so it was an old crowd (but Elaine was there!), but really, these films are the best way for young American dancers to keep tabs on what is happening in Moscow these days, and learn just who is who. After watching "La Sylphide" I had a crush on Ekaterina Krysanova.

Tonight, we went to go see "Le Corsaire": A brief synopsis:

Ballet in 3 acts and an epilogue on a libretto written by Jules Henri Vernoy de Saint-Georges and Joseph Mazilier together with Marius Petipa.
Created on the 23th January 1856 at the Théâtre Impérial de l’Opéra, Paris
This new choreographic version has been created on the 21th of June 2007 at the Bolshoi Theatre of Moscou.

Ballet broadcasted live in cinemas thanks to Pathé Live

Music : Adolphe Adam

Conductor : Pavel Klinichev

Choreography : Marius Petipa
Scenography and new choreographic version : Alexei Ratmansky, Yuri Burlaka
Sets : Boris Maminsky
Costumes : Elena Zaytseva
Lights : Damir Ismagilov

Médora: Svetlana Lunkina (réserve : Ekaterina Shipulina)
Conrad: Ruslan Skvortsov (réserve : Mikhail Lobukhin)
Seyd, le Pacha : Alexey Loparevich
Birbanto : Andrey Merkuriev (réserve : Denis Savin)
Zulmea : Kristina Karaseva
Gulnare : Nina Kaptsova (réserve : Chinara Alizade)
Isaac Lanquedem : Gennady Yanin
Gardien de Seyd : Andrey Sitnikov

Ballet of the Bolshoi Theatre
Orchestra of the Bolshoi Theatre

Directed by Vincent Bataillon
Produced by François Duplat – Bel Air Media / Pathé Live – Thierry Fontaine

New Look at an Old Ballet

This Bolshoi Theatre production is intended for those who still seek for miracles in theatre. ... And if, in addition, you are as passionate about ballet as was Petipa, who embellished the old Paris original with marvelous choreographic tableaux and numbers of his own and if you love it as much as do the creators of the Bolshoi-2007 version of Le Corsaire – Alexei Ratmansky and Yuri Burlaka who have attempted to revive – here the creations of their famous predecessor – there – simply his signature, you will become a devotee of this ballet and attend performances of it just as regularly as you do those of La Bayadere or Swan Lake.

This is real “grand ballet” where there is enough dance for virtually the whole company at once, while the prima-ballerina proves her right to this title almost without a break. And although this Le Corsaire is far removed from its literary source (Byron’s poem of the same name, dear reader), its libretto is quite capable of satisfying society’s love of the pirate-romantic genre.

A great deal of work was involved in launching this Le Corsaire. The creators of the ballet studied archive material in Moscow’s Bakhrushin Museum and in the St. Petersburg State Theatre Library; with the assistance of the Paris Opera, the original score was retrieved from La Bibliotheque national de France; the old costumes and sets were reproduced, while, having deciphered the original dance notation in the Harvard Theatre collection, Ratmansky and Burlaka added dances of their own, their aim being in no way to sin against the spirit of that age when the last of Petipa’s Corsaires loved, drowned and finally ended up safe and sound – the 1899 revival. Just over one hundred years later – might be a suitable title for this hazardous and one hundred percent serious romance between the Bolshoi Theatre and grand ballet.

...Le Corsaire was an unfailingly popular ballet throughout Europe in the 19th century. Its grandest staging was in Paris in 1856 but it soon arrived in Petersburg, was much revised, its first score by Adolphe Adam given a patchwork of interpolations. It survived, variously corrupt, in Russia, and in London we rejoice in the Mariinsky’s madcap account – by Groucho Marx out of Ali Baba. Now Alexey Ratmansky, director of the Bolshoi Ballet, and Yury Burlaka, a specialist in dance reconstruction, have made a production that seeks to show the ballet as Petipa finally transformed it in 1899. The plot may, fragmentarily, be Byronic but it is really a romp for pirates, slave girls, assorted eunuchs, and with a shipwreck to round matters spiffingly off. The score has been cleaned.

The scenery, by Boris Kaminsky, is brilliantly of-the-period in suggesting Adrianopol under Turkish rule. The costumes by Yelena Zaitseva rework those designed in 1899 and are admirable. Ratmansky and Burlaka have restored a text, recapturing much of what I sense is the Petipa manner, and filled it with dance delights. The result is fascinating, and was given on Thursday and Friday nights, when I saw it on the Bolshoi’s New Stage, with exultant zest.

Svetlana Zakharova, as the heroine Medora, was enchanting, witty and beguiling in step and manner, and she sailed with adorable grace through ferocious choreography. (At the second performance, Svetlana Lunkina was also a delight). The celebrated Jardin anime is revealed as a far longer scene than heretofore, the stage a riot of danseuses with roses in baskets, bouquets, parterres, garlands, looking exactly like the photograph in the programme of the 1899 staging.

The shipwreck is tremendous and scary, and Gennady Yanin scuttles about the stage like an anxious crab, brilliantly comic as Medora’s venal father. And the piece lasts 3 hours. ....

by Clement Crisp
The Financial times, 06/25/2007

Adolphe Adam was the same composer as for the ballet "Giselle", so in a way, despite their disparate styles (spare and classical vs. sumptuous and character), "Giselle" and "Le Corsaire" are cousins.

I was really struck by "Le jardin animé", partly because of the costumes, partly because the music so-closely parallels "Giselle" (with the garland-bearing dancers echoing the Wilis), and partly because of the sheer number of dancers. There were no surviving notes regarding the costumes for this part of the ballet, so costumer Elena Zaytseva had to create them from scratch. Interestingly, the angle of the skirt on the dresses in "Le jardin animé" almost-perfectly matches that of Morning Glories. We had those kind of flowers in Corrales, New Mexico when I was growing up as a little kid, so one odd effect on me of "Le jardin animé", with all the dancing Morning Glories, was a strange form of home sickness.

I think this is my favorite ballet now. It's so much better than so many!

Film Trailer




Fortunately, a pas de deux from this version of "Le Corsaire" is on-line!

Le Corsaire pas de deux - Svetlana Lunkina and Ruslan Skvortsov




Svetlana Lunkina Discusses Giselle

Trouble In My Neighborhood On A Monday Night

Looks like an auto accident.

"Cabaret" - Third Weekend - DMTC

Just one more weekend to go!

I haven't taken any pictures till Saturday, just because I worry about stuff derailing on my Stage Manager watch.

Afterwards, we went to Woodstock's Pizza in Davis. From our perch, we could observe pizzas being made.

Shoe Tossing Near Where I Live

These shoes mark the West End of what I suspect to be a Drug Zone.


I was mystified why people in my neighborhood toss shoes on electrical lines. So, time to consult Wikipedia:

Shoe flinging or "shoefiti" is the practice of throwing shoes whose shoelaces have been tied together so that they hang from overhead wires such as power lines or telephone cables. The shoes are tied together by their laces, and the pair is then thrown at the wires as a sort of bolas. This practice plays a widespread, though mysterious, role in adolescent folklore in the United States. Shoe flinging has also been reported in many other countries.

...A number of criminal explanations have been proposed as to why this is done. ... Some also say that shoes hanging from the wires advertise a local crack house where crack cocaine is used and sold (in which case the shoes are sometimes referred to as "Crack Tennies"). It can also relate to a place where heroin is sold to symbolize the myth that once you take heroin, you can never "leave": a reference to the addictive nature of the drug. Others claim that the shoes so thrown commemorate a gang-related murder, or the death of a gang member, or as a way of marking gang turf. ... However, the practice also occurs along relatively remote stretches of rural highways that are unlikely scenes for gang murders, and have no structures at all to be crack houses.

These shoes mark the East End of what I suspect to be a Drug Zone.


I rather like the drug-sale explanation offered on Wikipedia, because these shoes bracket a location where I often see mysterious people waiting in the shadows, and where there is mysterious traffic. A decade ago, I remember a Big Raid here, where a swarm of police shut them down at gun point. My guess is either that they have returned, or it's a new group resistant to the lessons of the past.

Good for what ails you....