Kneel Before The Meteorologist!

I'm not worthy! (But the data is!)

Arizona Flooding?

Today's forecast shows the Caribbean quieting down a bit, but still remaining rather active. We'll have to keep our eyes on that area. One possibility is that a thunderstorm complex from northern Columbia might fire things up there in about a week's time (I haven't seen that before - usually the storms come in from the Antilles - but it's certainly plausible).

The western Atlantic is less active, but should also be watched.

The most interesting possibility is that a Hurricane (currently called Tropical Depression 15-E, currently SW of Manzanillo, Colima) is making a lunge towards Arizona, the outliers of which would arrive about Tuesday morning, and the rest about a day later. This could be exciting, because disintegrating hurricanes occasionally cause stupendous flooding there (I was in Tucson around October 1, 1983, when Hurricane Octave broke up, and it was AMAZING!) In any event, we need to start watching for that!

Dramatic Board Replacement

I didn't realize how much attention Cheryl Bly-Chester's appointment would gather. The replacement of the entire state reclamation board was today's LEAD story in the Sacramento Bee!

Courtesy of former 2003 gubernatorial candidate Diana Foss, here is the story, from the LA Times.

Appointment of Cheryl Bly-Chester to the State of California Reclamation Board

Since the 2003 Gubernatorial Recall Election, former candidate Cheryl Bly-Chester has been working patiently with the Schwarzenegger Administration to find an appropriate place within state government for her many skills. She was determined, at first, to get an appointment within the Department of Conservation, but her efforts there ultimately came to naught. Nevertheless, she didn't give up her ambition to serve the State of California.

Today, Cheryl Bly-Chester announces her appointment to the State of California Reclamation Board! (I'm looking for the press release, but don't see it yet....)

In 2004, Cheryl worked on issues regarding relief to California National Guard families.

Many, many congratulations to her!

Caribbean Rumblings

Sometime this weekend, we'll see whether a new tropical storm develops in the Caribbean, south of Jamaica. If it develops, it will likely head NW, between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico, in the vague general direction of Louisiana (but it's still way too early to say anything definite).

23rd Annual Elly Awards

Autumn has started, which means, 'Elly' time again! (Here is the full list of nominees and the winners, from The Sacramento Bee).

This year, I arrived about 45 minutes late, so I missed the initial musical number and the Supporting Awards part. The second musical number was 'Stop Ladies Pray/Poor Wandering One,' from Runaway Stage's "Pirates of Penzance."

It was a pleasure to see that both Kelly Mustain and Kelly Daniells flew back to town from San Diego to participate in the festivities. Kelly Mustain was featured in the second musical number, along with Tevye Ditter. Kelly Daniells flew in to reprise her 'Cabaret,' from Solano Community College's production of "Cabaret." The number was a showstopper, winning her a standing ovation from many of the assembled actors and actresses.

Since DMTC is doing "Cabaret" (the original version, not Solano's revival version), it was tempting to compare the versions. It was difficult to do so, however. Jessica Hammon's version at DMTC right now seems much more sultry and smoky than Kelly Daniell's bright, brassy version. Kelly was punching for dramatic effect so hard (in her award acceptance speech, she mentioned getting acting training recently from Bob Baxter) that I thought it violated the spirit of the number.

But what, exactly, is the spirit of the number? As the director of the Solano show (presumably George Maguire) pointed out when he was accepting the award for Best Overall Production of a Musical, Kander and Ebb revised "Cabaret" several times. If the Emcee is a much darker character in the revival, then it stands to reason that Sally Bowles might be much brighter, to heighten the contrast between the lead characters. Until I see both versions, however, I will have to suspend judgement on the question.

Some moments from the show (paraphrased as best I can recall........)

The girl sitting next to me (Eldorado Musical Theater?) shouted at the stage several times during the proceedings, "You've got my socks!" At one time, Tyler Milliron, from El Dorado Musical Theater Young People's Theater, was on-stage, but it seemed like she shouted at several other people as well, which made me wonder how many people have her socks, and why she has so much difficulty keeping hold of them.

Katherine Pappa's award acceptance speech started with, "Oh, thanks kids! Stop being bitter now!"

Another award winner: "This music makes me feel like I'm underwater!"

Bob De Lucia, accepting an award for work at Magic Circle Theater: "How many of you have ever worked with Alan Pontes? He's amazing! An actor who thinks. What a concept!" Bob finished his speech by pointing at his fedora-covered head and stating: "It's all about the hat!"

Another award winner: "Go 1980's! That's the foundation of the play. And to all my teachers who said I'll never get anything for fooling around - well, I showed you!"

An African-American actor, accepting an award (I missed the precise context, but the audience thought it was funny): "I'm not a black Russian!"

Jeff Kean, from Woodland Opera House, stated, just before opening an envelope, "the suspense is killing me." An excitable student near me commanded, "Do it!"

Kelly Daniells, in her acceptance speech, began gushing. She named several people to whom she owed so much, then said, "And to my brother, Erik! He's WONDERFUL!" Then she caught herself, turned, and leaned over to Jim Jordan, the accompanist, who was sitting below and beside the stage, and said (to general laughter and amusement), "Oh! And you're wonderful too!"

And the line people will remember most of all.... James Wheatley, peering into the darkness of the Crest Theater in order to locate his stars from "Master Harold and the Boys," asked: "Is my Willy here?"

Here are some lame pictures from the cheap seats.....


'Stop Ladies Pray/Poor Wandering One,' from Runaway Stage's "Pirates of Penzance," with Tevye Ditter's audience-wowing hip thrust.


Tevye Ditter and Kelly Mustain.


'Falcon in the Dive,' from "The Scarlet Pimpernel," Modesto Performing Arts.


'I Really Like Him/Why Do You Do The Things You Do?' "Man of La Mancha," Solano Community College.


Emily Jo Seminoff wins an Elly Award for "The Miracle Worker."


Kelly Daniells, 'Cabaret,' from "Cabaret," Solano Community College.

Busy Bees

Busy bees, they flew to LiveJournal
With tales of the life nocturnal
All would have been well
They really cast spells
Flew instead into the urinal

"Bye-Bye Birdie" Pictures - Cast One

A few photos from the DMTC Summer Workshop, from Dannette Vassar (she apparently has a photos Web Site somewhere, with a variety of DMTC-related photos, but I haven't found it yet). Sorry about using low resolution here: it's a compromise, to allow the Web Page to open easily (drop me a note at mvaldez@sierraresearch.com, and I can send the higher-quality photos to you).


Julien Biewer-Elstob (Birdie), Hailee Ketchum-Wiggins (Kim MacAfee), plus ensemble


Julia Soto (Mae Peterson) and Ryan Warren (Albert Peterson)


Katherine Vanderford (Rosie Alvarez)


Katherine Vanderford (Rosie Alvarez) and Ryan Warren (Albert Peterson)

Pocatello Weather Guy...

Has his own ideas

Since Katrina, Stevens has been in newspapers across the country where he was quoted in an Associated Press story as saying the Yakuza Mafia used a Russian-made electromagnetic generator to cause Hurricane Katrina in a bid to avenge the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima. He was a guest on Coast to Coast, a late night radio show that conducts call-in discussions on everything from bizarre weather patterns to alien abductions. On Wednesday, Stevens was interviewed by Fox News firebrand Bill O'Reilly.

(Only the last part was really strange...)

The Morons At The New York Times

Kos says it all! If it isn't Miller, Bumiller, Nagourney, et al. making up stuff and calling it news (remember WMD? Wen Ho Lee?), it's something else, like primo-stupido pricing policies. Meanwhile, I get conservative OpinionJournal from the Wall Street Journal twice a day - for free! Enough dumb-ass conservative opinion to choke two horses, twice a day!

Makes me wonder why I still get the Sunday Times....

Don't Go All Wobbly On Us!

Rita, as she approaches the shore!

Yeah, But I Like 'Doof Doof Dance Music'

Those annoying songs you hear in retail stores:

Workers in fashion and shoe shops suffered most from "repetitive record syndrome", having to listen to the same songs being played over and over again.

The top 10 most played - and most annoying - singers were: Britney Spears, Usher, Kylie Minogue, 50 Cent, Robbie Williams, Akon, Beyonce, Blue, Justin Timberlake and Michael Jackson.

Christmas was the most testing time for the ears of retail workers, with Jingle Bells topping the list of the most hated seasonal songs, followed by Slade's Merry Christmas Everyone and White Christmas by Bing Crosby.

Baffling Storm

The official forecasts keep pushing Hurricane Rita east, towards Port Arthur. The forecasts keep changing, though, for reasons that baffle me. Tonight, the heavy rains forecast in NW Louisiana/western AR/eastern OK don't look quite so formidable as they did this morning. But I'll believe that when it happens.

What bothers me is, why doesn't the storm jog west, towards Galveston, instead of inching east towards Port Arthur? I mean, there is a ridge to the north of the storm, so why doesn't it jog west in response to the atmospheric speed bump? There was a remark on the Central Florida Hurricane Center blog suggesting that ridge isn't very strong, but still, it's there.

Despite apparent unanimity at present, the different computer models seem to have trouble resolving the exact fate and timing of Rita's movements. A lot has depended (and continues to depend) on the evolution of the elongated trough over the western U.S., but because radiosonde stations are scarce over the eastern Pacific, the data driving that evolution are imperfectly understood. So, watch for sudden forecast changes, as predictions for the future try to keep pace with a surprising present!

Hurricane Hall of Fame

Recorded Category-5 hurricanes.

Signs Of Sleep


One can only wish! (something new from Deborah)

SIGNS OF SLEEP
Deborah McMillion Nering
Small show of sleepers and dreamers at:
Art One Gallery, Inc.
4120 N Marshall Way
Scottsdale, Az 85251
480.946.5076

For the First Thursday Art Walk
October 6th, 2005
7:00-9:00 PM

Eastward Shift

Updated forecasts for Hurricane Rita by the major models (this compilation is sometimes called the 'spaghetti model') now show landfall will occur just east of Galveston Bay, rather than west, which means the city of Galveston is unlikely to see the maximum conceivable storm surge (which generally occurs east of the eye of the storm). Still, it will be pretty bad - like getting run over by a logging truck rather than a locomotive. And it's prime oil country down there: Port Arthur, Port Neches, Beaumont, Baytown, and, of course, Houston - which means the prices of petroleum products can't help but soar, for the rest of the year at least. The recovery from Hurricane Katrina was already relying inordinately on Houston-area facilities, since so many Louisiana ports are out-of-commission, so delays in the recovery of oil supplies will multiply.

The forecasts also show Rita blasting through eastern Texas/western Louisiana, and then more or less stalling, and meandering around the Texarkana, AR area for several days. Not that windy, but it does mean that all of western Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma is vulnerable to very heavy, prolonged rains: Boston Mtns., Ouachita Mtns. - Arkadelphia and the Ouachita River Valley watershed. It's ironic that so many refugees from New Orleans, stranded in places like Houston, Shreveport, etc., may be forced to flee again.

Meanwhile, in Washington D.C.

The homeland has never been better prepared....

Apocalypse Now

Virtually all of the hurricane forecasts are now pointing directly at the Houston/Galveston area as the landfall point for Hurricane Rita. Very dangerous, particularly since (according to the National Hurricane Center):

RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

That's EVER, as in all history! As the Weather Channel states:

Landfall is possible late Friday or early Saturday along the Texas coast. Residents and tourists in locations such as Corpus Christi, Aransas Pass, San Jose Island, Matagorda Island, Port Lavaca, Port O'Connor, Bay City, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Galveston, Texas City, Houston, and Port Arthur should ALL prepare for a very dangerous landfalling major hurricane.

History has shown (in 1900) that Galveston is quite vulnerable to storm surge, and the current forecast shows landfall just west of Galveston (perfectly placed for maximum storm surge). After that, the storm will go blasting through Houston, and eastern Texas, and into the Ouachita Mtns. of Oklahoma and Arkansas, leading to torrential flooding there.

Time to flee!

Guy Ritchie's New Movie

This sounds problematic - I'll go see 'March of the Penguins' (or something else) instead:

Critics reckon Revolver is even worse than his last stinker, the risible Swept Away, a film which starred his wife and all but destroyed her career as a serious actress. "After Revolver, Swept Away now looks like Citizen Kane," the Guardian said.

... The problem is the film is as muddled as the weird form of Jewish mysticism Ritchie and his wife practise. Some even suggest their obsession with Kabbalah has contributed to the film's impenetrability. Despite being ostensibly about gambling and gangsters, Revolver is full of obscure references to Kabbalah, with strange mentions of numbers and bizarre references to "ego versus the light" - both Kabbalah allusions.

At the premiere, Ritchie was in defensive mood. He said of the criticism: "I think it was inevitable. The concept of the film is tricky and that's part of the reason I was attracted to it in the first place.

... Madonna, 47, with her arm still in a sling following a riding accident, appeared pleased not to be involved in the movie and said she was there purely as an adornment.

... Asked why he hadn't given his wife a part, Ritchie, 37, replied: "Do you think they would let me get away with that? I did that last time - it didn't work."

Watch Your Microbes

People on raft trips in the Grand Canyon have been getting sick, maybe from spoiled meat.

This reminds me of what my hiking friend from high-school, D.B. (back in the day: mid-70's), experienced in the Grand Canyon. He was down on the Tonto level (if I remember correctly), in the summer heat with two companions, when he got the brilliant idea of mixing everyone's stash of honey with the drinking water - that way they'd get fluid and nutrition at the same time.

This proved to be a mistake. According to Chris N., honey resists spoilage because the sugar is too concentrated for bacteria to thrive. Mixed with water, though, honey becomes ideal for bacteria. They had to throw away their entire water supply, which was very dangerous anytime, but especially so in the summer. They tried to reach a spring by sunset, but were confronted with a cliff they couldn't negotiate in the dark. Parched, they collapsed at the top of the cliff, and had to wait till dawn, when they summoned the strength to descend the cliff to life-giving water.

Watch your microbes!