14th Annual "Race For The Arts"

Today, I got up way early, to be part of DMTC's support group for the 14th Annual "Race for the Arts."

At the DMTC booth.

They're off!

Don't be late!

Strolling along.

Pretty tree in Land Park.

Pretty grove in Land Park. (Some evolutionary scientists say that homo sapiens is biologically driven to prefer parklike areas because they resemble the open savanna in Africa where we first evolved).

There was a theater area in the park, where a number of local arts groups performed. The groups that performed first (e.g., Deane Dance Center) were at a considerable disadvantage, however, because nearly their entire audience was out running. Here, Sacramento Theater Company's (STC's) Young Professional's Conservatory representative Arcadia German improvises patter to entertain the sparse crowd. Other STC volunteers charmed the audience with Shakespearean monologues. Arcadia made me laugh with her synopsis of an upcoming STC drama (whose title I unfortunately missed): "If you're interested in witchery and hangings and - it's based on the McCarthy Hearings! - if that's what you like, come on down!"

Elite Studio of Dance in Elk Grove performed as part of Elk Grove Youth Dance's program.

Studio 18 from North Natomas performed.

Aspiring dancers know that good nutrition is important - specifically, giving away the good nutrition to those for whom it is better suited.

A Swing West?

So far, Isaac is behaving just about letter-perfect, according to National Hurricane Center forecast.

Most of the latest model runs are showing a swing away from Tampa, and a landfall towards Louisiana, but because not all the models are showing this development, the National Hurricane Center isn’t endorsing it yet, and is trying to split the difference – they are still showing a landfall around Pensacola (see below). Nevertheless, this swing to the west seems reasonable, and could well happen, which would give Tampa a bit more safety margin.

Hundreds Of Thousands Of New Mexicans Are Native Americans!

Well, about 166,000, according to Wikipedia.

And you have a problem with that?:

A progressive group called on Republican National Committee leader Pat Rogers to step down on Friday after emails showed him telling New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez’s staff that meeting with a group of American Indians “dishonored” Gen. George Armstrong Custer, the 19th century commander who killed scores of American Indians.

“The state is going to hell,” Rogers, who is a member of the GOP executive committee and is currently in Tampa for the RNC convention, wrote in a June 8 email released by Progress Now New Mexico. Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Col. Allen Weh “would not have dishonored Col Custer in this manner,” he wrote.

Martinez is required by law to attend the annual state-tribal leaders summit, according to Progress Now New Mexico, which called for him to step down.

“Such a blatantly racist statement against our native people is offensive from anyone, but to come from a national GOP leader and lobbyist for some of our country’s largest corporations is indefensible,” Progress Now New Mexico’s executive director Pat Davis said in a statement.

An Intervention

CollegeHumor’s Favorite Funny Videos

Marking Time With Isaac

Today, no real appreciable changes, so far. The storm’s organization has improved somewhat. They moved the low pressure center farther south, as I expected they might, but then they angled the path more sharply to the north, meaning no real difference to the Tampa forecast. I still think the path will be more westerly than they are giving credit for, giving Tampa a better margin of safety, but we’ll see. In any event, the rightward kick has not happened. The storm did not skip across Hispaniola, or do any of the more interesting things they suspected it might. I don’t expect it will. Right now, it’s just south of Haiti. I think it’ll graze past the north shore of Jamaica and run into Cuba. Then, things get complicated again, with all the land interactions. But no surprises, so far.

Eliot Spitzer Is Getting Really Shrill!

Because the bastards got clean away with it, and they will do it again!:

So let's talk for a moment about the case against Ken Langone and his role on the NYSE Compensation Committee. The New York Stock Exchange, at the time a not-for-profit, paid its CEO Dick Grasso more than $200 million over a series of years. A report done for the board of the Exchange by Dan Webb, one of the most respected prosecutors in the nation, found that Grasso was overpaid by at least $144 million, and that Langone and the compensation committee handled the matter improperly!

...That Grasso was paid in excess of $200 million by a board composed of the CEOs of the very companies he was supposed to regulate is overwhelming evidence of just how corrupted our corporate governance system had become, and remains. The behavior of the New York Stock Exchange board during this era is a perfect demonstration of the interlocking conflicts of interest and corruption that permeated our corporate leadership.

...The record here is crystal clear: AIG and Hank Greenberg were charged by the New York Attorney General's Office—while I was attorney general—with fraud and deceptive accounting practices. The company settled for $1.64 billion, at the time the largest payment in history.

...After invoking his Fifth Amendment right to avoid testifying, Greenberg settled with the SEC for $15 million. And a federal judge, in a written opinion, found evidence that the conspiracy to deceive investors originated with Greenberg. Even CNBC covered Greenberg's settlement by saying "Ex-AIG CEO Greenberg settles fraud charges with SEC."

So Mr. Langone, despite your effort to talk about everything other than the facts of these cases, facts matter. These cases were absolutely correct, important, and went to the heart of the type of corporate fraud and defalcation that very nearly destroyed our economy.

El Micha feat. Clave Cubana - Esto Tiene Algo (Reggaeton Cubano 2011)

Tonight, Pepper was playing a (what I think was a remix) version of this song. A perfect Zumba AND rap dance tune AND could work really well on "Breaking Bad"!

Skeptical About Isaac

The modeled forecasts are beginning to strain credulity right now. As part of Isaac’s interaction with land and water, and the trough over the eastern United States, the NOGAPS forecast shows the storm making a rightward jog today and tomorrow through the strait separating Haiti and Cuba. As part of that process, there should be clouds and showers over central Cuba right now – but there aren’t any. So, I’m thinking, ‘not gonna happen’!

In addition, I just don’t think they have the location of the storm right. It isn’t so much that there are multiple rotating centers to this storm. It’s just that the storm has a single center that is farther south than they think. It seems clear enough to me from looking at the satellite pictures (1 & 2).

So, I’m skeptical right now. Probably what will happen is they’ll have a big reset later today, once they get hurricane aircraft in there, discover the problem, and they’ll set their modeled trajectories further to the west, and away from Tampa.

Still, Isaac will make a fairly close approach to Tampa. Interestingly, because of all the interactions with land, the National Hurricane Center does not have the storm reaching Category 1, or hurricane, status until after it’s over the Gulf of Mexico, after passing Tampa.

So, Tampa may get sideswiped by a tropical storm. Monday may see rain, and a stiff breeze, in Tampa, but I doubt there will be any calamities.

Todd Akin Died For Our Sins

Mike Huckabee is mad:

Who ordered this “Code Red” on Akin? There were talking point memos sent from the National Republican Senatorial Committee suggesting language to urge Akin to drop out. Political consultants were ordered to stay away from Akin or lose future business with GOP committees. Operatives were recruited to set up a network of pastors to call Akin to urge him to get out. Money has changed hands to push him off the plank. It is disgraceful. From the spotlights of political offices and media perches, it may appear that the demand for Akin’s head is universal in the party. I assure you it is not. There is a vast, but mostly quiet army of people who have an innate sense of fairness and don’t like to see a fellow political pilgrim bullied. If Todd Akin loses the Senate seat, I will not blame Todd Akin. He made his mistake, but was man enough to admit it and apologize. I’m waiting for the apology from whoever the genius was on the high pedestals of our party who thought it wise to not only shoot our wounded, but run over him with tanks and trucks and then feed his body to the liberal wolves. It wasn’t just Todd Akin that was treated with contempt by the thinly veiled attack on Todd Akin. It was all the people who have faithfully knocked doors, made calls, and made sacrificial contributions to elect Republicans because we thought we were welcome in the party. Todd Akin owned his mistake. Who will step up and admit the effort being made to discredit Akin and apologize for the sleazy way it’s been handled?

Doug Shared This On Facebook

On B3ta's "Best Answers" Page This Week!

They like me: they really, really like me!:

Foot in Mouth Syndrome II

Have you ever said something and wished the ground would open up and swallow you? Tell us your tales of social embarrassment.

First Impressions

She was a radiant Nordic princess on the school bus; I was a nerdy halfling. I noticed she was playing with the ends of her long, blonde hair. I screwed up the courage to approach her, and cheerfully inquired, "Nits?"

The Folks In Tampa Just Want Some Answers

Trying to forecast where hydra-headed Tropical Storm Isaac might go, this far out, is hard.

Here’s the latest model run I'm looking at right now (don’t worry about the security certificate warning – the website is safe).

This afternoon was a bit more sobering. In its afternoon update, the National Hurricane Center warns that Isaac has no defined center at the moment, but several centers, mutually rotating about each other. Indeed, that seems to be true. And there might also be some tilt to the storm too, towards colder air (which, oddly-enough, seems to be to the south, over South America).

The San Juan/Virgin Islands radar showed one of the rotational centers being just off the Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic coast, but the upper air outflow is as far south as Aruba, and even farther south. So, basically, the storm is everywhere over the eastern Caribbean (but still not powerful yet).

So, forecasting a path is hard. The NOGAPS model is now just about on the consensus path.

The consensus path leads the storm through the Keys to just off the Naples, FL coast. It is likely that air travel to Tampa will be disrupted Monday afternoon and evening as the storm makes its closest approach to the city. It would rain pretty hard on Monday, with some wind, but Tampa wouldn’t take a direct hit. Then, the storm would continue on its path into the Gulf of Mexico, heading towards a New Orleans landfall. There is plenty of opportunity for air travel flight disruptions, as panicked people try to get out of the way of the storm.

Still hoping for more westward movement of the storm. Nothing is settled yet.

Replacing The Pipe

I just thought this time lapse video was cool! It's from Christchurch, New Zealand, where massive infrastructure repair continues from the 2010-2012 series of earthquakes they suffered.



Work began on the $4 million pipe replacement project on June 16, 2011, with MacDow Fletcher as the lead SCIRTcontractor. March Construction was the subcontractor. Woodham Road officially re-opened on 14 May 2012 with the residents of the street present to mark the occasion.

Woodham Road was closed to traffic while the earthquake-damaged northern and southern confluence trunk wastewater pipe was replaced.

The project involved sheet piling and excavation of a substantial 130 metre long, six metre by six metre wide trench, the bypassing of the old trunk wastewater pipe which carried 40% of the city's wastewater volume with a 1.2 metre diameter temporary pipe, and lastly the replacement of the damaged trunk wastewater with a 1.8 metre diameter plastic pipe, the largest of its type to be used in New Zealand.

First Weight Landmark

Reached 180 pounds today (after having started from 193 pounds a little over a month ago).

180 pounds was from where I started losing weight back in 2005. At that time, I decided that 180 pounds would be the maximum tolerable weight I should ever reach, and that I should never exceed that weight again, under any circumstances! A lot of good that declaration did!

The next landmark is 168 pounds (the lowest weight I reached in 2005). After that, 164 pounds (my weight in 1991, when I was considerably concerned about my growing weight then).

In my mid-twenties, I was 135 pounds. Out of reach?

Getting That Sinking Feeling About Tampa

Giving advice to the folks there:

Studying these things is something like studying bowling, and figuring out exactly which pins will be knocked down, and which will remain standing, right after the ball is released.

Looking harder at this thing, I'm beginning to adopt the National Hurricane Center consensus view. That view is perilous to Tampa!

The reason the heretical NOGAPS model kicks the storm to the right is because of a complicated interplay with a little low pressure area currently swirling over eastern Cuba and Haiti. NOGAPS says Isaac will collide with this region of vorticity off-center, creating two mutually-rotating low pressure lobes that will ultimately have the effect of kicking the storm to the right. Meanwhile, the GFS model suggests the collision will not be off-center, that the collision will be direct, that the low pressure area will be absorbed, and that the progress of Isaac will be unaffected, with no kick to the right.

As much as I like the NOGAPS model, I find the second line of reasoning more persuasive. The storm is still pretty far south, farther south than it needs to be for the kick to work, is more powerful than the eastern Cuban low, and will dominate any interaction. If so, then there will be no kick to the right, and the National Hurricane Center consensus view will prevail.

We'll know more as the storm passes Hispaniola. By that time, either there will be a kick to the right, or there won't be. I'm now thinking there won't be.

The high pressure area NE of Florida seems stronger than anything NW of Florida: another reason why a more westerly track is favored, and why the National Hurricane Center consensus view is likely to prevail.

NOGAPS has the storm raking Florida's east coast all during Monday, with closest approach to Tampa late Monday afternoon. The GFS model has the storm raking Florida's west coast, making closest approach to Tampa early Tuesday morning. Generally, NOGAPS tends to be a bit fast, so I'm thinking early Tuesday morning will be the time of closest approach.

If the NOGAPS view prevails, the airport in Tampa will remain open when you are traveling, but if the National Hurricane Center consensus view prevails, the airport will be closed.

Right now, I'm thinking it's a bad time to travel. The odds of real trouble are just too great.

Mostly Pretty Dry This Last Month In The West

Premature Schadenfreude

It’s interesting just how different the NOGAPS forecast is from the National Hurricane Center consensus.

The NHC consensus is that Tropical Storm Isaac will certainly hit Florida, and could come into the Tampa area.

Nevertheless, even though the NOGAPS forecast has shifted Isaac a bit farther west than it was yesterday, it still shows Isaac remaining east of the Bahamas (but approaching close enough to alarm people there). The NOGAPS forecast shows the storm moving up the East Coast, hitting Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and raking the Atlantic seaboard. But NOGAPS does NOT show the storm entering the Tampa area: at least, the forecast doesn’t show that at the present time.

So, let’s hope things turn out the way NOGAPS forecasts!

Meanwhile, the folks over at Salon are yearning for some schadenfreude:

Oh no, a hurricane might strike the Republican National Convention in Tampa! Weather scientists say a little “tropical system” in the Atlantic could head up to Tampa this weekend and become a hurricane named Isaac. Also, fun fact: Tampa is terribly vulnerable to hurricanes. Vast numbers of Tampa residents live in areas that would be overrun in the event of a major storm surge. The city is more vulnerable every year, since sea levels are rising due to ... God loving the Earth so much that he’s hugging it real close and accidentally melting the ice caps.

According to Climate Central’s research, sea level rise is escalating the threat of damaging storm surge flooding in the Tampa area. The odds that a flood exceeding 6.5 feet would occur in Tampa before 2030 are about 14 percent without global warming, but these odds increase to 20 percent with the effects of global warming-related sea level rise factored in.

A “worst-case Category 4 hurricane in the Tampa Bay region” would put the Tampa Bay convention center under 20 feet of water, “and St. Petersburg would become an island, as occurred during the 1848 hurricane.”

The Harrisons Visit "Breaking Bad" Locations

I received an E-Mail from Tim Harrison:

Hey, Marc

Last week, we went on vacation to Albuquerque. We checked out some of the Breaking Bad sites and put together a little video. We couldn't have done it without your site!

Thanks,
Tim Harrison

I'm amazed how good the quality here is! The song is "Giving Up Drugs Again" by The Womb. Like Stephanie at the Facebook site says:

Gah! That's what we did back in April but they did it SO much better & on video. I'm totally envious and crazy impressed.

Ben Bruening's 50th Birthday Party

A Second Bike Ride To Discovery Park With Joe The Plumber

Joe is like a salmon when it comes to bike rides. We headed on a nearly-identical path as before to the archery area at Discovery Park.

The little train in Old Sacramento.

We passed through the K Street Mall and Downtown Plaza, to reach Old Sacramento.

At the water intake facility on the Sacramento River.

Once again, the water-lovers were out in force.

At Discovery Park itself, a group of archers were finishing a shooting session. Joe talked to everyone and anyone, riding out to the targets to grill an archer about his craft.

One of the people who Joe talked with was a fellow who came out of the bushes (and apparently lives there). He talked to Joe, but not to me. He said, "I wonder about the differences between the words 'paranoia' and 'suspicion'. These words come up a lot these days."

"That's a good point," I said. "They are similar concepts. For example: 'I'm paranoid about my suspicion'; 'I'm suspicious about my paranoia.'" Joe replied, "Now you're just babbling."

The departing archers took pity on the homeless - Joe, the guy from the bushes, and (apparently) me. They left watermelon slices and burger rolls for us to eat. I was hungry, and dug right in with the melon.

Back in Old Sacramento again.

Everyone turns out for the big gunfight!

The gunfight was staged as an 1850 battle between big landowners, who cited the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in order to assert their rights, and a group of newly-arrived squatters from the East.

Hurry to the gunfight!

Challenges hurled! Guns fired!

Innocent bystander struck!

The big landowners advance! They win!

A German family watched the pitched battle. All of the complicated citations of legal authority, in English of course, went right over the head of a six-year-old German girl. She heard yelling and gunfire, and felt the aggression. She started crying....

Chess available at Downtown Plaza.

Farewell To Jenny Reuter and Ashley Hickman

After the performance of "The Music Man", Saturday evening segued into a party for both Jenny Reuter (heading to Harvard) and Ashley Hickman (heading to Pratt Institute, in Brooklyn). Lots of karaoke & dance-a-oke, and just general fun!

"The Music Man" - DMTC YPT Summer Workshop - Saturday Evening, 08/18/12

Bows. Harold Hill (Noah P.) and Marian Paroo (Petra F.).

Pity They are Fleeing

One of the hallmarks of the national GOP is a determination to ignore science, and anything related to it, that way being able to redefine reality to suit what it wants to believe. No where has that refusal to deal with obdurate reality been in starkest contrast than with biology. Alas, the GOP doesn't want to have a debate:

Todd Akin stands alone. Minutes after Akin vowed to remain the Republican nominee in the Missouri Senate race, the full infrastructure of his party abandoned him.

John Cornyn (R-TX), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called on Akin to “reconsider” staying in the race and then reportedly warned him that if he does stay in, he won’t have any financial help from the committee.

Around the same time, the super PAC founded by Karl Rove said it had abandoned the Senate race as well, leaving Akin without valuable air cover in his bid to unseat Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).

Irrational Enthusiasm

Holy Water:

A Republican congressman representing Kansas has apologized for embarrassing his supporters by swimming naked at the holy site of the Sea of Galilee while on a fact-finding mission to Israel.

Freshman U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder, 36, has not been charged in the Aug. 18, 2011, incident when he and about 20 other lawmakers and staff members jumped into the water. Politico reported Sunday that he was the only one among them who wore no clothes.

“I feel incredibly remorseful that I have caused embarrassment to my constituents and I have caused folks who believe in me to be disappointed,” Yoder told The Kansas City Star Sunday night (http://bit.ly/Se9dm7 ).

Some Christians consider the Sea of Galilee a holy site because they believe Jesus walked on water there. Swimming in the lake is permitted but public nudity is not allowed, according to Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld.

A Wal-Mart At Montaño & Coors Is A Terrible Idea!

What about the existing one near Coors & I-40? Can't they find another place? Too close to the Rio Grande! (h/t, Michelle S.):

There's another element to this pastoral soundscape: in the distance, the hums and rattles of automobiles. Steps beyond the Bosque—just past the Pueblo Montaño Picnic Area and Trailhead—lies the vacant southeast corner at the major intersection of New Mexico State Road 448 (Coors) and Montaño. The intersection saw 150,200 vehicles per day last year. That's probably why Walmart wants to shove another store into this sensitive location.

Thinkin' 'Bout Food All Day Long

(h/t, Chloe)

I Just Love How The Landing Rockets Blew Away The Local Dust

And I love those water-scoured badlands at the bottom.....

Ernesto/Hector Passes Into The Halls Of Weather Nostalgia

Ernesto/Hector finally died an ignominious death early today:

ONLY A FEW WIMPY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF HECTOR DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE DURING THAT TIME. THUS...HECTOR NO LONGER MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW.

Some of the moisture it kicked up entered Arizona today, and may yet do so in the days ahead, but for now, it enters the Halls of Weather Nostalgia.

Paul Krugman Versus The Media Chumps

It's crazy that so much media firepower is in the hands of perfect idiots like William Saletan, someone who couldn't pass junior-high level math even if he tried, but God save us, it is!:

Look, Ryan hasn’t “crunched the numbers”; he has just scribbled some stuff down, without checking at all to see if it makes sense. He asserts that he can cut taxes without net loss of revenue by closing unspecified loopholes; he asserts that he can cut discretionary spending to levels not seen since Calvin Coolidge, without saying how; he asserts that he can convert Medicare to a voucher system, with much lower spending than now projected, without even a hint of how this is supposed to work. This is just a fantasy, not a serious policy proposal.

So why does Saletan believe otherwise? Has he crunched the numbers himself? Of course not. What he’s doing – and what the whole Beltway media crowd has done – is to slot Ryan into a role someone is supposed to be playing in their political play, that of the thoughtful, serious conservative wonk. In reality, Ryan is nothing like that; he’s a hard-core conservative, with a voting record as far right as Michelle Bachman’s, who has shown no competence at all on the numbers thing.

What Ryan is good at is exploiting the willful gullibility of the Beltway media, using a soft-focus style to play into their desire to have a conservative wonk they can say nice things about. And apparently the trick still works.

A Kid And His Tarantulas

Teen, spiders break into Breaking Bad

People are touchingly concerned about him:

It's shocking, disturbing and going viral, and the episode's big stars are a young boy and a trio of tarantulas, all of them local.

Chris Webb, 15, is from Rio Rancho and plays a kid riding his bike around the mesa collecting tarantulas in scenes shot south of Santa Fe. He also witnesses some shenanigans involving the stars of the show about a high school chemistry teacher turned methamphetamine kingpin.

...Webb says working with Breaking Bad cast and crew was great.

...What was new for him was acting with a trio of female Chilean rose hair tarantulas named Dierdre, Patty and Pepper.

The spiders were trained by Chris Lim from Clark's Pet Emporium.

Lim says the Breaking Bad directors originally wanted the classic big black tarantulas. But he convinced them to use the Chilean spiders because they are more docile and look more like the types of tarantulas found in New Mexico.

...He also had to get them used to having a big, black camera lens pointed at them.

One of the arachnid actors--Pepper--actually went home with Webb as a gift.

Alternative Ending

So bad....

The GOP Wants MORE Corruption, Not Less!

As long as they are pulling the strings, they don't care:

Until 1913 and the ratification of the 17th Amendment, Americans didn’t actually elect senators, state legislators did. The change seems unquestionably positive, but Rep. Jeff Flake, the front-runner for the Republican nomination for a Senate seat in Arizona, said this week when asked about repeal,”I think it’s better as it reinforces the notion of federalism to have senators appointed by state legislatures.”

...Rep. Todd Akin, who recently won a Republican Senate primary in Missouri and will face off against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, said in May, “I have a very serious concern about erosion of states’ rights, and reversing this [17th Amendment] might pull that balance back.” He said he was “leaning” in favor of repeal. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, the Republican nominee in Michigan running against Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, said recently when asked about repealing the amendment, “I think that would be a positive thing.”

...But repealing the 17th Amendment would be far worse than merely undemocratic. In fact, democracy wasn’t the main motivation behind the amendment at all; corruption was. If you think campaign finance is bad now, image how much easier it is to buy an election when you only have to reach a handful of state legislators instead of an entire state’s electorate.

...Interestingly, Maryland didn’t officially ratify the 17th Amendment until April of 2012.

Surprisingly Little Is Known About Mild Hypertension

Does that mean ignorance is bliss?:

Most of the 68 million patients in the United States with high blood pressure have mild, or Stage 1, hypertension, defined as a systolic (top number) value of 140-159 or a diastolic (bottom number) value of 90-99. The new review suggests that many patients with hypertension are overtreated—they are subjected to the possible harms of drug treatment without any benefit.

...Since many doctors and professional societies have been promoting treatment for mild hypertension for decades, the astute reader might wonder why this analysis was conducted only recently. The reasons are complex, but in a nutshell, researchers simply never addressed the question: Does treatment of mild hypertension help or harm patients? Instead, many authorities simply assumed that treatment helped, probably because treatment of more severe hypertension has been shown to be beneficial. In most clinical trials, patients with all degrees of hypertension were simply lumped together.

...But the fact that no benefit was detected in the Cochrane analysis means that any benefit is likely to be small—if present at all. And there’s always the possibility that the drugs cause a slight net harm. Some of the drugs are known to cause serious complications, including death.

I See A Landslide Coming - For Obama!

Mitt Romney is our generation's Tantalus:

In terms of demographics, Mitt Romney has one path to victory: overwhelming support from white voters. At the least, he’ll have to outperform every Republican since Ronald Reagan, and win 60 percent of their votes. And this is if minority turnout is at its 2008 levels. If it increases, he needs even more whites to make up the difference.

Seniors play a key part in this coalition. ... In all likelihood, any gains from the Ryan pick—in terms of mobilizing the conservative base—are offset (or even outweighed) by the fact that Romney has introduced a huge a new danger to his campaign. If Obama’s Medicare attacks are successful in peeling off seniors from Romney’s coalition, the path to 50+1 percent of the vote is much more difficult—if not impossible—for the former Massachusetts governor.

Indeed, as Sean Trende (who is far from easy toward Obama) points out at Real Clear Politics, this new vulnerability introduces the potential for something that was quite unlikely before—an Obama landslide.

Madcap Robots Afflict Credit Card Debt Collection Too

It figures! Just like with the mortgage lenders, it never occurred to the credit card companies they'd ever get challenged by anyone, and actually have to prove that people owe them money:

As they work through a glut of bad loans, companies like American Express, Citigroup and Discover Financial are going to court to recoup their money. But many of the lawsuits rely on erroneous documents, incomplete records and generic testimony from witnesses, according to judges who oversee the cases.

Lenders, the judges said, are churning out lawsuits without regard for accuracy, and improperly collecting debts from consumers. The concerns echo a recent abuse in the foreclosure system, a practice known as robo-signing in which banks produced similar documents for different homeowners and did not review them.

“I would say that roughly 90 percent of the credit card lawsuits are flawed and can’t prove the person owes the debt,” said Noach Dear, a civil court judge in Brooklyn, who said he presided over as many as 100 such cases a day.

Gawd, Michael Gerson Is The Chumpiest Chump Romney Ever Hornswoggled!

Romney aimed his choice of Paul Ryan as VP with that tiny, tiny, microscopic elite of 300 (or so) "journalists" - like Gerson! - specifically in mind:

In the fight Romney has picked, Ryan is an advantage. He is the best policy thinker and best communicator among the rising generation of conservative reformers. He combines a sober realism about a teetering, unsustainable entitlement system with a bubbly, Jack Kemp-like belief in the promise of unleashed enterprise. ... Unlike a recent Republican vice presidential nominee, you can't put him on the spot. He is informed, levelheaded and persuasive. And he is already Barack Obama's most persistent, effective economic critic.

The charge of radicalism will not survive exposure to Ryan himself. The notion that he is merely a "base pick" is lazy.

...In his single-minded pursuit of health care reform, Obama sacrificed many things, including his purity on entitlement cuts. More than $700 billion in Medicare savings was devoted not to shoring up Medicare but to funding Obamacare. Republican proposals for Medicare reforms, in contrast, exempt seniors 55 and older from changes. So only one candidate has pursued Medicare cuts that undermine services to current seniors – and it is not Romney. Sen. Marco Rubio, by the way, won election in Florida after endorsing Ryan's "Roadmap," with a variant of this message: Protect current seniors without bankrupting their grandchildren.

...Romney – who has so often stroked the voters in the past – has suddenly called their bluff. It is both the assumption of a risk and the emergence of a leader.

Sorry To Hear Capitol Nursery Will Close

A neighborhood institution, and all:

Capital Nursery's iconic but financially struggling Sacramento location – its flagship store on Freeport Boulevard, where three generations of Sacramento gardeners browsed for floribunda roses, calendula and all manner of vegetables – announced Thursday that it is closing in September.

Like America, Russia produces Weird Sects

Glad to hear we aren't alone:

"They pray. They are religious. But they are not junkies, drunks or bandits," Ziganshin said in his home in the village of Bailyangar, 200 kilometers (120 miles) away. "They never abuse the kids, never beat them."

Neighbors, however, said the children were raised to look upon others with disdain and would curse and throw stones from inside their compound.

"They consider themselves a higher race, while other people are garbage," said Ildar Khusainov, 42, who lives in a nearby wooden house.

Eerie Name Coincidence

Walter White is wanted in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for violating parole related to methamphetamine production.

Videos From DMTC's 2012 Hit of Hits

I was hesitant to post videos from Hit of Hits, because I didn't have a program, but I discovered there never was a program for this event. That may explain why I've had trouble finding programs for previous Hit of Hits - they never existed! In any event, here are three videos (out of a total of ten, at my YouTube channel).

Ishi's Gaze

From the November 2010 issue, regarding my neighborhood's landmark mural:

Forster spent 160 hours over four weeks working on the mural. Particularly interesting to him was the frequent contact it provided with the public, given the highly visible location at the busy intersection of 24th Street and Broadway. DMV employees, gas station patrons, and customers from other neighboring businesses all stopped by to weigh in with their comments. On average about six people a day approached Forster about his mural project.

“There were literally dozens who would just walk by or even drive by and holler encouragement,” said Foster. “People from all backgrounds would take a moment out of their daily bubbles to take in Ishi’s gaze.”

Between Pillar And Post

Trying to eat less; trying to stay inspired.

Holding The Entire Ozone Layer Hostage

Bastards!:

They quickly figured out that they could earn one carbon credit by eliminating one ton of carbon dioxide, but could earn more than 11,000 credits by simply destroying a ton of an obscure waste gas normally released in the manufacturing of a widely used coolant gas. That is because that byproduct has a huge global warming effect. The credits could be sold on international markets, earning tens of millions of dollars a year.

That incentive has driven plants in the developing world not only to increase production of the coolant gas but also to keep it high — a huge problem because the coolant itself contributes to global warming and depletes the ozone layer. That coolant gas is being phased out under a global treaty, but the effort has been a struggle.

...“I was a climate negotiator, and no one had this in mind,” said David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It turns out you get nearly 100 times more from credits than it costs to do it. It turned the economics of the business on its head.”

FRC Shooting

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em:

WASHINGTON — A man shot a security guard at the headquarters of the conservative Family Research Council on Wednesday morning in downtown Washington, D.C.

The guard was shot in the arm before the shooter was subdued, according to reports.

While Fox News claimed “sources” said the gunman “expressed disagreement with the conservative group’s policy positions,” two FBI officials cautioned reporters that early eyewitness accounts are often inaccurate and said it was too early to speak to the suspect’s motivation.

Ryan's Selection Was Meant To Sway Only About 300 People

The rest of us are just 'flyover' people, so to speak:

So, let me clarify what I believe is really going on in the choice of Paul Ryan as VP nominee. It is not about satisfying the conservative base, which was motivated anyway by Obama-hatred; it is not about refocusing on the issues, because R&R are both determined to avoid providing any of the crucial specifics about their plans. It is — as Jonathan Chait also seems to understand — about exploiting the gullibility and vanity of the news media, in much the same way that George W. Bush did in 2000.

...[M]any commentators want to tell a story about US politics that makes them feel and look good — a story in which both parties are equally at fault in our national stalemate, and in which said commentators stand above the fray. This story requires that there be good, honest, technically savvy conservative politicians, so that you can point to these politicians and say how much you admire them, even if you disagree with some of their ideas; after all, unless you lavish praise on some conservatives, you don’t come across as nobly even-handed.

The trouble, of course, is that it’s really really hard to find any actual conservative politicians who deserve that praise. Ryan, with his flaky numbers (and actually very hard-line stance on social issues), certainly doesn’t. But a large part of the commentariat decided early on that they were going to cast Ryan in the role of Serious Honest Conservative, and have been very unwilling to reconsider that casting call in the light of evidence.

So that’s the constituency Romney is targeting: not a large segment of the electorate, but a few hundred at most editors, reporters, programmers, and pundits. His hope is that Ryan’s unjustified reputation for honest wonkery will transfer to the ticket as a whole.