The Southwestern Monsoon Is About To Start

The GFS model weather predictions for the next two weeks show that the Southwestern Monsoon is primed for an early, vigorous start on June 22nd (at least over New Mexico; it'll generally be later, in July, for Arizona). 

The high pressure system that will make life miserable next week in the Ohio River Valley strengthens at the same time, and indeed, appears integral to the initiation of the monsoon. (I wonder if something like this is true for all southwestern monsoons?) 

I'm hoping the best for abundant southwestern rainfall, but you can never be certain how it will all play out. I remember the 1984 southwestern monsoon had a similarly-vigorous start, but the cloud cover that accompanied it depressed the orographic uplift of thunderstorms. It didn't rain much at all in the southwest in June, 1984. Instead, high pressure hurled all that the moisture far, far into Canada before much rain managed to fall. I know the Canadians need rainfall, but can't we get some too? 

And there may be a Global Climate Change aspect too. Michael Mann is out with a brand-new paper entitled "Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century." Mann asserts that resonance events (like next week's heat wave in the Midwest) have increased three-fold over the last half-century, especially in the summer, due to global warming. I'm sure the report will make good reading on a miserably-muggy Cincinnati evening next week. 

Southwestern rainfall is exceedingly erratic, and always has been, at least as far as post-Ice-Age records reveal. Still, I'm thinking there is a slow, decades-long increase of rainfall underway. You look at century-old photos of the southwest and things just seemed less lush in the bad old days. We are getting hotter temperatures these days, but we are getting a bit more rain too. 

Change can seem slow. I hope we like the new world we are creating.