Idle Thoughts on Ukraine

John writes:

I have been thinking the same thing articulated in this link. To me the parallels are uncanny. What do you think?

What does the link say?:

Operation Canned Meat II 

U.S. intelligence officials have determined a Russian effort is underway to create a pretext for its troops to further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has already prepositioned operatives to conduct “a false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine, according to the White House.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Friday the intelligence findings show Russia is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign that frames Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine.

Psaki charged that Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion.

...Mass overwhelming forces on the border of a far less-powerful neighbor -- check. Stage a pretext for an invasion -- check. Claim that they are only acting in self-defense -- check. Claim that they are only protecting the rights of their own ethnic people -- check. Right wing groups in the United States parroting the lies of the invaders -- check. An Asian dictatorship using the distraction of a war in Europe to carry out their own war -- check.

Other nations are paying attention and taking their own steps. Russia's aggressive posturing has made it clear to the Nordic neutrals that they will have to choose a side. And they seem to be.

My take:

Maybe so! By putting the word out in advance about a false flag operation, The U.S. takes a lot of wind out of the sails of Russia. Still...

Russia has the luxury of the initiative and a long porous border with Ukraine to work with. It will be difficult to defend Ukraine.

Ukrainian public opinion is increasingly solidified against Russia.

It is interesting that FDR did not make security guarantees for Ukraine at Yalta (a point the Republicans used to hammer Democrats for the next 50 years). FDR didn't do it because the U.S. didn't have a large enough presence in the area to make any guarantees against Stalin. Times are iffy these days with Putin in the Kremlin.

The U.S. was very careful not to intrude on Russia's informal security zone in eastern Europe until very recently. Even in 2008, when Georgia invaded a portion of Russian territory and pleaded for U.S. intervention, and despite John McCain's efforts to do exactly that, the U.S. didn't protect Georgia, as the Russians invaded and whupped their asses.

But times have changed. Putin wants what the USSR had, its respected cordon sanitaire in eastern Europe, but doesn't have the strength to maintain it. Ukraine and others don't fear them so much anymore. The U.S. wants to bring Ukraine into NATO, and Ukraine wants to join. Sweden and Finland are threatening to join NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.

Putin thinks he can get what he wants, and the U.S. thinks it can enter the Ukrainian cordon sanitaire and outlast Putin. A recipe for war, when both sides see opportunities and few downsides. And there are still nukes to worry about too. 9We'll see!

I'm curious about Zelensky's action at this time regarding Poroshenko. Seems risky!:

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine's former president, Petro Poroshenko, landed in Kyiv on Monday to face treason charges in a case he says was trumped up by allies of his successor, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

In a brief stand-off at border control after arriving on a flight from Warsaw, Poroshenko accused border guards of taking away his passport. He later greeted a crowd of thousands of cheering and flag-waving supporters outside the airport.

Poroshenko's return sets up a showdown with President Zelenskiy's government in what critics say is an ill-judged distraction as Ukraine braces for a possible Russian military offensive and seeks the support of its Western allies.