The Democrats woke up! What woke them up? Several things. The Delta Variant rampage. The Texas Abortion Case. Dodging a bullet aimed straight at them - the Caldor Fire didn't burn down South Lake Tahoe, despite all the destruction wrought by that fire, the Dixie Fire, the Tamarack Fire, the Lava Fire, etc., etc.
What really helped too was finally getting a favored Republican candidate, Larry Elder, a shock DJ who came across on his TV ads as a humorless true fanatic. Democrats woke up! Right now it looks like Independents aren't fired up, so it all boils down to a nakedly-partisan skirmish. And Democrats have the advantage!
Now, why did support coalesce around Elder in the first place? That's the real mystery to me. Way too extreme for California. Trumpers on the national scene running things when Trump is hated almost everywhere in California. It's not really Elder's fault, although he will get blamed. Professional politicians weren't in charge, that's for sure!
Kicking ass and taking names. Love it!:
Gov. Gavin Newsom is on track to survive a recall election in deep-blue California after initially causing Democrats severe heartburn, with veteran Republican insiders blaming GOP front-runner Larry Elder.
The conservative talk-radio host motivated previously complacent rank-and-file Democrats — which neutralized Newsom’s biggest challenge of voter apathy — by catering to the Republican base with polarizing rhetoric and adamantly opposing mask and vaccine mandates amid a resurgence of the coronavirus. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2–1, Elder made himself the perfect foil for Newsom — enabling the Democratic incumbent to make the campaign about the GOP rather than his embattled leadership.
“Newsom has successfully framed the race as him versus Elder, and Democratic voters are responding by voting,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP operative in Sacramento who advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican who succeeded Gray Davis after the Democrat was recalled from office in 2003. “Elder has no appeal outside of GOP voters.”
...“Before Elder, the race was all about Gavin, and our polls were looking very good,” said a Republican consultant in California. “If the election had been four or more weeks ago, we would have won.”
Elder has received some support outside of the traditional conservative circles.
Democrat Gloria Romero, who served as her party’s majority leader in the California Senate, even cut a television advertisement for the Republican.
“Yes, I’m a Democrat. But the recall of Newsom is not about political party,” she said in the spot. Meanwhile, Elder’s Republican critics concede the GOP faced several hurdles in this special election campaign that have nothing to do with Elder, as is true for the party in every statewide contest.
The Democratic Party enjoys a 22.4 percentage point advantage over Republicans among registered voters, and Newsom and the anti-recall forces vastly outspent the pro-recall groups and the handful of Republicans seeking to replace the governor. Additionally, former President Donald Trump, broadly viewed as the leader of the Republican Party, is disliked in California. In contrast, top Democrats — President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Barack Obama — are popular.
Despite all of that, some Republicans claim Elder squandered opportunities to hobble Newsom when he was on the ropes. Voters were upset with the governor for infamously ignoring his own pandemic, and they tired of his coronavirus regulatory regime. There was frustration over closed public schools, rising crime, and a homelessness epidemic. The state unemployment agency overseen by Newsom’s administration was beset by fraud and mismanagement.
...“This is over,” added Garry South, the Democratic operative who was Davis’s chief political adviser in 2003. “Newsom beats it by double digits.”
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